A Case Study On The Credit Bond Defaults Of Brilliance Auto Group

Credit rating plays an important reference role in credit bond registration review,issuance pricing,risk measurement,etc.It can enhance the understanding of the issuer by external investors and reduce the information asymmetry between the two parties.However,the current credit ratings of credit rating agencies in China have problems such as China’s current credit rating has problems such as the upward shift of the rating center and the delay in rating adjustments,and the early warning effect of the rating is not good.In addition,the scale of bond defaults in China has continued to grow in recent years,and the regulatory level is gradually canceling mandatory bond ratings.In this context,under the policy of canceling mandatory bond ratings,investors need to take the initiative to reduce dependence on external ratings and strengthen the internal credit rating system Build and focus on improving its own credit research level.Based on the content of public information disclosure,this thesis uses grounded theory,expert scoring method,order relationship analysis method and other methods to construct an early warning model of credit bond default signals suitable for investors.This thesis uses the early warning model in Brilliance Auto Group and analyzes its early warning effect.The study found that the default signal early warning model constructed in this thesis has the advantages of simple operation,timely early warning and quantifiable early warning results compared with credit rating model.The study also found that industry and market signals have better early warnings,and securities market performance signals have a higher frequency of early warnings.There are two innovations in this thesis,first,it combines grounded theory and order relationship analysis to select and assign indicators.Based on the perspective of investors,it provides information on how to identify bond default signals,evaluate default risks,and monitor risk information.A set of specific operation plans;second,the thesis points out that parent company’s statements deserve our special attention when analyzing the default risk of shareholding platforms,and selects the parent company’s asset-liability ratio,the proportion of minority shareholders’ equity and other indicators to be included in the early warning indicator system of bond default signals.This thesis puts forward risk prevention suggestions from the system and investor level based on case analysis.At the institutional level,it is necessary to improve the information disclosure system.On the one hand,it is necessary to increase the illegal cost of information disclosure,and promote the quality of information disclosure to become an important reference in the review of bond issuance;on the other hand,it can evaluate the quality of information disclosure of issuers and guide issuers to improve information disclosure.Effectiveness and pertinence.At the investor level,an information management platform can be used to strengthen the construction of an internal credit rating system.The shareholding platform needs to strengthen the identification of financial risks in terms of parent company statements and subsidiary profit distribution.