Research On Emergency Bus Connection Under Interruption In Urban Rail Transit Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

Urban rail transit system has the characteristics of intelligence,information,transportable passenger flow,high flow of people,high system airtight,and is a major artery of public transport in our big cities.But at the same time,it is easy to be interfered by some uncontrollable factors during normal operation,resulting in sudden interruption of one or several stations of urban rail transit,which will cause delays to passengers’ travel and even have potential safety risks.Therefore,it is of great significance to mobilize the ground bus system to evacuate the waiting passengers in the first time after the interruption,and to continue the transportation of the suddenly interrupted track operation section,which is of great significance to reduce the passenger travel delay and economic loss in the accident.In this thesis,under the background of the sudden operation interruption of urban rail transit,the emergency coordination measures and schemes after the occurrence of the event are studied.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the line condition of the urban rail transit system and combined with the location of the interrupt section of the urban rail transit line,the interrupt events are divided into three cases: the sudden interruption of single or all rail lines,the sudden interruption of all line networks without transfer stations and the sudden midsection of transfer stations in the rail transit network.This thesis studies the sudden interruption of a single rail transit line.Based on the degree to which passenger travel is affected during the interruption,the passenger flow is divided into the flow that passenger travel is completely affected,the flow that is partially affected and the flow that passenger travel is not affected.In addition,there are corresponding calculation methods for passenger flow in each case.(2)In the case of sudden interruption of urban rail transit,the stranded passenger flow that needs emergency bus connection evacuation is studied.It is pointed out that what passengers rely on when they travel is not the actual travel cost in the travel path,but the route travel cost perceived by individuals in the actual situation,and the corresponding detailed calculation method is given.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,the path selection behavior of passengers is analyzed,and the passenger flow affected by travel in the above classification is taken as the research object.The passenger path selection model under the influence of the sudden disruption of urban rail transit is constructed to obtain the passenger flow required by the emergency bus connection.(3)This thesis studies the planning problem of emergency bus route under the sudden interruption of urban rail transit.Firstly,the departure conditions and scheduling and coordination process of emergency bus are summarized,and then the scope of emergency bus routes is analyzed.According to the selection principle of first and last stations,the selection scheme of emergency bus first and last stations and intermediate stations is determined.Through comparison,the outstanding advantages and disadvantages of various modes of emergency bus routes are obtained.Based on the comprehensive consideration of the total cost of the emergency bus system,the total capacity of the emergency bus,the passenger demand,the characteristics of the route and the selection of the station,the route scheme,the station scheme and the scheduling scheme of various modes of emergency bus are formulated.(4)Case verification analysis.Based on Hangzhou Metro Line 4 as an example,assuming that the line fault causes the operation interruption,the passenger route selection problem is studied to obtain the passenger flow required by the emergency bus,and the multi-mode connection optimization model is used to finally get the optimized emergency line scheme.Through comparison and analysis with the single connection mode,it is found that the optimization in passenger travel time,bus operation cost and the total cost of the number of emergency buses is obtained,which confirms the effectiveness of the multi-mode emergency bus service optimization model established in this thesis.