Emergency Decision-making Of Automobile Supply Chain Considering Supply Interruption Risk

The automobile industry plays an important role in China’s economy.However,with the change of the international market environment and the promotion of lean manufacturing,the automobile supply chain is more fragile.In recent years,unexpected man-made events or natural disasters have caused frequent supply interruptions,which directly affect the stability of the automobile supply chain.Enterprises related to the automobile supply chain not only suffer economic shocks,but also increase the market occupation rate and customer loss with the increase of out-of-stock time,resulting in the loss of business brand and reputation.The supply interruption events in the supply chain system are usually accompanied by suddenness,urgency and uncertainty.Therefore,when considering the risk of supply interruption,choosing appropriate emergency strategies to intervene in time can effectively make the supply chain recover quickly and reduce the impact of supply interruption on the whole automobile supply chain system.The quantifiable emergency decision-making model of supply interruption constructed in this paper is the key to make the supply recovery plan of automobile parts and reduce the risk caused by supply interruption.Aiming at the three-level automobile supply chain composed of component suppliers,automobile manufacturers and automobile distribution centers,this paper embeds three emergency strategies: emergency procurement,flexible replenishment and capacity repair,and conducts in-depth research on the selection of emergency strategies for supply interruption,and obtains the optimal scheme for emergency decision-making of automobile supply chain under different conditions.In the process of model design,a series of triangular fuzzy numbers and related probabilities are used to evaluate the interruption duration,and the shortage of interrupted suppliers and the remaining capacity of normal suppliers are analyzed.The emergency cycle is divided into two stages: emergency response period and supplementary recovery period.According to the network flow theory,the algorithm is designed,and the model is verified by example analysis.At the same time,the unit cost of emergency strategy is analyzed as a parameter to observe how the change of emergency strategy cost affects the strategy selection.The results show that:(1)When the interruption duration is constant,the quantity of out-of-stock depends on the remaining capacity of normal suppliers.If the shortage is less than the surplus capacity of normal suppliers,the normal operation of the supply chain can be maintained by allocating the supply quantity of suppliers during the emergency response period.If the shortage is greater than the surplus capacity of normal suppliers,it is necessary to judge and estimate the recovery period of replenishment,and adopt three emergency strategies to replenish the goods.(2)After the supply interruption,the choice of emergency strategy will change with the change of strategy cost.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)The triangular fuzzy number method is introduced to predict the duration of supply interruption,which helps the related enterprises in the automobile supply chain to judge the urgency of supply interruption.(2)The emergency cycle of supply interruption is divided into two stages,and an emergency decision model is inserted at the moment of interruption,so as to improve the response speed of related enterprises in dealing with supply interruption events and reduce the cost loss.(3)Based on the concept of network flow,three emergency strategies are embedded in the model,and the change of emergency decision-making under the change of strategic cost is considered,which provides guiding suggestions for related enterprises to deal with the risk of supply interruption in different situations.