| Under the encouragement of policies such as ‘carbon peak’ and ‘carbon neutral,’ China is actively constructing a new power system.With the rapid development of distributed energy resources and changes in the market environment,a large number of new market entities such as prosumers who possess distributed generations and can produce and consume their own electricity have participated in power side trading.Faced with the problems of long decision-making time,difficult risk control,and low operational efficiency in traditional centralized trading,distributed trading can effectively alleviate them.However,due to the current imperfections in the distributed trading system and the presence of random trading behaviors among prosumers,it is crucial to conduct research on strategies for prosumer involvement in both distributed and centralized market transactions at different stages.To address these issues,this thesis takes into full consideration the impact of photovoltaic supply and insurance level on the decision-making of prosumers,as well as the impact of coal-fired units considering carbon quotas on centralized trading of prosumers.As a result,a two-stage market trading model tailored to prosumer needs is proposed,comprising distributed matchmaking trading between prosumers in stage I and centralized bidding trading with surplus between prosumers in stage II.The specific details are as follows:(1)By conducting a comprehensive analysis of the types and characteristics of prosumers,this study compares them with the traditional market trading mechanisms.It examines a typical operational framework suitable for prosumer transactions supported by interactive energy mechanisms.Furthermore,novel approaches are proposed,namely distributed matchmaking trading between prosumers in stage I and centralized bidding trading with surplus between prosumers in stage II.These models provide fresh insights for future research.(2)A strategic analysis is conducted for the distributed matchmaking trading between prosumers in stage I.Firstly,different models are established to assess the photovoltaic supply and insurance level for various prosumers,and the social and individual attributes of prosumers under different photovoltaic supply and insurance levels are analyzed.Subsequently,distributed matching transaction strategies are proposed for prosumer participation in electricity market transactions under different photovoltaic supply and insurance levels.These strategies encompass transaction rules,transaction processes,transaction strategies,and transaction matching.Finally,a case study is conducted to validate the findings,it is shown that prosumers considering photovoltaic supply and insurance level can actively participate in distributed energy trading,meeting the demand for on-site consumption of distributed energy.(3)The study focuses on the centralized bidding trading with surplus between prosumers in stage II under the context of dual carbon emissions reduction.It consideres the possibility of energy surplus for prosumers in Stage I transactions,forming prosumers’ groups.The surplus and deficit quantities are reported collectively and subjected to centralized competitive bidding with coal-fired power plants.Firstly,a carbon quota allocation method for coal-fired power plants based on the ZSG-DEA model is proposed,and a bidding model for coal-fired power plants considering carbon quota allocation is established.Subsequently,a surplus bidding model for prosumers’ groups,considering the supply-demand ratio,is developed,and a centralized competitive bidding strategy for Stage II transactions between prosumers’ groups and coal-fired power plants is proposed.Finally,a case study analyzes the impact of carbon quota allocation on the clearance results for market participants,facilitating the rational allocation of market resources and optimizing social benefits. |
