Spatial Evolution And Prediction Of Towns In The Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based On CA-Markov Model Evolution And Prediction Research

As a transition space from rural space to urban space,the emergence and development of urban space is a relatively complex process.At the present stage,urban space is overly pursuing material conditions in the development process,which leads to imbalance in development and lack of cultural lineage,etc.Meanwhile,due to the different urbanization processes in different regions,the renewal and development mode of urban space forms the characteristics of regionalized differences.Urban space is a complex whole that carries the interactive activities of people and society through material space,and its evolution process is closely linked with material environment and human activities.The analysis and prediction simulation of the evolution of urban space and town space in the process of urbanization has become a hot topic at this stage.The Three Gorges reservoir area is located in the heart of the Yangtze River basin,and its geographical location is relatively special,and the development of town space is closely linked with the ecological environment.As a result of the Three Gorges Project water storage,a large number of original towns were submerged and disappeared,and then experienced rapid development during the migration and relocation period,forming a unique spatial pattern of towns.In order to study the evolution process of such complex systems,this paper chooses the quantitative analysis of town space evolution as the basis,and simulates the subsequent development of space by establishing a prediction model,which provides a new research method to investigate the motives of town space evolution in the reservoir area,and also provides a basis and strategy for the subsequent development and construction of town space.It also provides a basis and strategy for the subsequent development of urban space.1.theoretical research,review the current research status,propose the theoretical basis of the research and construct a framework for predicting the spatial evolution of towns(Chapters1-3).The theoretical background of the thesis and the review of related literature are presented,and the basic concepts of landscape pattern index and meta-cellular automata model,as well as the self-organized development theory of town spatial evolution,the "mountain-water-city" layout form of towns in the reservoir area and the multi-disciplinary analysis of town spatial development are proposed.The concept of town space is analyzed by multiple disciplines.We propose and construct a simulation framework for CA-Markov town spatial prediction,analyze the general situation of the study area,and collect and pre-process the data required for the study and analysis.2.town space evolution analysis,quantifying the town space evolution process in Hubei section of the reservoir area through indicators such as landscape pattern index(Chapter 4).One of the main subjects of this paper is to quantify the town space evolution of different counties in Hubei section of the Three Gorges reservoir area by calculating the landscape pattern index,combining the town space development of each county in Hubei section of the reservoir area at four time points of 2005,2010,2015 and 2020;later,three time stages are divided into five-year intervals,calculating the dynamic change index and the land transfer The spatial evolution of towns in different counties in Hubei section of the Three Gorges reservoir area is quantified by calculating the landscape pattern index.3.town spatial prediction simulation,establish CA-Markov prediction model framework,and after completing the model accuracy verification,conduct an example study of each county and district in the northern section of the reservoir area(Chapter 5).Zigui County,Xingshan County and Yiling District in the Hubei section of the reservoir area are used as examples for analysis,and based on the evolutionary analysis conclusions derived from the previous paper,simulation predictions are made based on the discrete dynamics model metacellular automata(CA)to predict the spatial development of each county and district in 2030 under various scenarios,and the prediction results are combined with evaluation and analysis.By analyzing the evolution of the Markov transfer probability matrix for the urban space from 2005 to 2020 and the simulation prediction for 2030,the research results show that:(1)in the late development of urban space,the scale of construction land expands significantly while encroaching on the surrounding land such as farmland,causing greater damage to the original natural environment,which is characterized by a higher transfer probability from farmland to construction land.(2)The development of urban space can be divided into three stages: natural growth,rapid growth and stable growth,and the transformation between construction land and other land types is different in different stages,among which the stages of Zigui County and Xingshan County are more obvious,and Yiling District shows a faster development rate in all three stages due to different development orientation.After the accuracy verification,the method of predicting the development of urban space through the simulation of CA-Markov model is feasible,and the prediction of 2030 is made for each county and district in Hubei section,and the land use raster map under the corresponding scenario is generated.Therefore,in the process of actual urban development and renewal,the use of model prediction can reduce the emergence of irreversible problems in the subsequent development,and provide a basis for protection and renewal design for the subsequent urban spatial construction and development.