Evaluation And Simulation Prediction Of Water Cycle Health In Zhengzhou City Based On DPSIR-SD

As a strategic basis for human survival and development,water resources not only drive economic development,but also play a decisive role in protecting the ecological environment.The objective basis of water resource formation is water cycle,and the foundation of water resource evolution and development also depends on water cycle.The health status of regional water cycle is a key factor for high quality regional development.Zhengzhou is the national central city,is one of the central Plains city group of core cities.This paper evaluates the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou,and then simulates and predicts the development status of water resources system,economic and social system and ecological environment system in Zhengzhou,which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the high quality development and ecological protection of Zhengzhou.Based on the review of the research status of water cycle health at home and abroad,a set of evaluation index system covering 24 indicators of regional water cycle health status was constructed based on the driving force,pressure,state,impact response(DPSIR)model.Based on the entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the water cycle health index(CEI)of Zhengzhou was calculated,and the evolution process of water cycle health state in recent years was analyzed.Based on System Dynamics(SD)model,the causal relationship diagram and system flow diagram of the water resources,economy and ecological water circulation health system of Zhengzhou City were constructed.Combined with the DPSIR model and the economic development plan of Zhengzhou City,five scenarios were set up to simulate and predict the change trend of the circulation health state of Zhengzhou City under different schemes.On the basis of simulation and data prediction,Jinshui District,Erqi District and Zhongyuan District of Zhengzhou were taken as typical areas.Sketch up and Mars software were used to construct 3D model results of water cycle health prediction,and the results of different models were compared and combined with the prediction data,so as to jointly select the optimal development plan.The main research achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the DPSIR model,a regional water cycle health evaluation index system was established,which included 24 indicators,such as urbanization rate,per capita GDP,per capita water consumption,total water resources,green coverage rate of urban areas,and ecological water consumption.The comprehensive index of water cycle health status of Zhengzhou during 2010-2020 was calculated by using entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The results show that the state of water cycle in Zhengzhou has gradually evolved into a healthy state.By 2017,it was basically unhealthy or above,and some indicators even showed a healthy state But the amount of water and the amount of water in each person and some other indicators show that there is an acute or even severe condition,which means that the shortage of water resources is still an important reason for the slow improvement of regional water cycle health status.(2)Based on the DPSIR model and combined with the development status of water resources in Zhengzhou,the water cycle system of Zhengzhou is divided into three subsystems: water resources,economy and ecology.On this basis,the water-economy-ecosystem dynamics model of Zhengzhou is constructed,and five scenarios are set up: status quo development type,water resources optimization type,economic development type,ecological protection type and comprehensive coordination type.The healthy development trend of water cycle under different scenarios in Zhengzhou from 2020 to 2030 was simulated.The results showed that the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou showed an upward trend under 5 scenarios.Among them,the health of water circulation in Zhengzhou reached the sub-health state of status quo,water resource optimization and economic development.The comprehensive value of the continuation status quo is lower,followed by the optimization of water resources and the highest economic development.Ecological regulation type and comprehensive coordination type have reached a healthy state,and comprehensive coordination type is always at a high level.(3)According to the health status of water cycle under different scenarios,the modeling of point elements,line elements,surface elements and body elements has been completed successively in combination with the functional characteristics of the modeling software Sketch up and Mars,as well as their different functions and fusion methods in the framework modeling of digital city.Then,according to different development scenarios,ecological protection water cycle health model,economic development water cycle health model,water resource optimization water cycle health model and comprehensive regulation water cycle health model are completed,and these four types of models are compared and analyzed.The results show that the development of comprehensive regulation type is more suitable for the development of health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou.