Research On Assessment Of SAIC’s Supply Chain Financial Credit Risk

In the new stage of high-quality development of the Chinese economy,it is an important task for the development of the financial industry to enhance the ability of the financial sector to serve the real economy and promote the structural reform of the financial supply side.In the face of market competition and the pressure of transformation and development,small and medium-sized enterprises still have the dilemma of difficult and expensive financing.Supply chain finance is an innovative financing model.Core enterprises use their own credit to guarantee financing for upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain,and help small and mediumsized enterprises with weak qualifications to obtain financing from financial institutions,which can better alleviate the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises.However,because supply chain finance involves a long industrial chain,many participants and close connections,once credit risk appears,it will cause losses to all participants of the supply chain.Therefore,this paper chooses SAIC Motor Corporation,the largest automobile manufacturer in China,as a case study to explore its supply chain finance credit risk prevention and control.This paper firstly introduces the development status and mode of supply chain finance of SAIC.Secondly,the source of credit risk of SAIC’s supply chain finance is analyzed from the credit risk of core enterprises and the credit risk of upstream and downstream financing enterprises respectively,and then the credit risk is identified from the external environment risk and the internal risk of the supply chain.Thirdly,this paper uses KMV model to calculate the default distance and default probability of SAIC and eight important cooperative enterprises in the supply chain from 2019 to2021,and evaluates and analyzes the individual credit risk level of SAIC and sample companies.In order to further explore the spillover effect of credit risks in the supply chain of SAIC,this paper uses GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model to measure the spillover effect of risks between SAIC and sample enterprises.Finally,based on the analysis and empirical results of risk identification,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the supply chain finance credit risk prevention and control of SAIC Motor Corporation from the perspectives of core enterprises,upstream and downstream financing enterprises and financial institutions,and provides references for the supply chain finance credit risk prevention and control of SAIC Motor Corporation and similar domestic enterprises.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,from 2019 to 2021,the change trend of credit risk of SAIC and most sample enterprises is consistent,and the level of credit risk of core enterprise SAIC is significantly lower than that of other enterprises,and the level of credit risk of small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises in GEM is higher than that of other sample enterprises.Second,there is a risk spillover effect between SAIC and the sample enterprises,and the risk spillover effect has a certain symmetry.If the overall supply chain is impacted by the external environment,no matter good news or bad news,SAIC and the sample enterprises will be affected at the same level.Third,the risk spillover effect between each sample enterprise and the core enterprise SAIC is different.The larger the enterprise scale,the higher the position of the enterprise in the industry segment,and the stronger the product competitiveness,the less susceptible it is to the spillover effect of core enterprise risk.At the same time,the closer the relationship between an enterprise and the core enterprise and the higher the proportion of business transaction scale between the enterprise and the core enterprise,the stronger the risk spillover effect between the enterprise and the core enterprise.