| In recent years,the new energy lithium battery market has shown broad market prospects and huge development potential,attracting the attention and investment of many enterprises.Enterprises in the lithium battery supply chain work with financial institutions to establish their supply chain finance system to help enterprises obtain financing support.However,due to the imperfect supervision system and the disorderly expansion of production capacity in recent years,problems such as poor coordination and intensified information asymmetry appear in the supply chain,which will increase the possibility of supply chain finance credit risks.Therefore,in order to promote the development of new energy lithium battery market and reduce the credit risks faced by all participants in supply chain finance,this paper takes CATL(Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited)as an example,evaluates the individual credit risk status of supply finance system and the possibility of risk transmission,and then puts forward corresponding risk management strategies.This paper first reviews the basic concepts,business models and theoretical methods of lithium battery supply chain finance,and at the same time elaborates the credit risk research methods and screens out the credit risk measurement methods that fit the case study.After that,this paper introduces the supply chain finance situation of CATL,introduces its basic situation and sort out its supply chain cooperative enterprises,and clarifies the supply chain finance business model of CATL,such as accounts receivable business and advance payment business.Then,this paper uses financial data,risk assumption model and Z-score to initially identify the credit risks of CATL and upstream and downstream enterprises,and analyzes the credit risk transmission mechanism.Finally,this paper uses the KMV model to measure the individual risk of supply chain cooperative enterprises,and selects the appropriate Copula function to analyze the credit risk transmission status of CATL,Delfang Nano and Changan Automobile in the supply chain system of CATL.Based on the empirical results of credit risk,this paper puts forward the corresponding risk prevention measures of supply chain finance in Ningde era from the perspective of before and after,and provides enlightenment for the credit risk prevention of other supply chain enterprises,financial institutions and governments according to the case.Based on the case study of CATL,this paper makes a conclusion.The empirical results of credit risk show that:(1)KMV credit risk measurement results show that the upstream credit risk of supply chain in CATL is higher,and the credit risk performance of CATL and its downstream enterprises is at a lower than medium level.(2)Based on the conditional default risk results of the three sample enterprises measured by Copula function,it can be concluded that when one enterprise defaults,the default probability of the other two enterprises increases by 2-3 times.In order to reduce the credit risk of supply chain finance in CATL,this paper puts forward the following risk countermeasures:(1)Pre-prevention measures are to improve the supply chain finance platform,strengthen the risk assessment and monitoring,use the risk sharing machine,make and take installment payment and other measures;(2)post-treatment measures are to block the risk infection,transfer the risk and safeguard the rights and interests and other measures. |
