| Lanxi is located in a humid area with abundant rainfall,but the interannual and intraannual distribution of precipitation and water resources is extremely uneven,which does not match the economic and social water demand.Although Lanxi has preliminarily formed a multi-source integrated water supply system including reservoirs,Lanjiang River and water diversion outside the region,the ability to regulate and utilize water resources is still difficult to meet the needs of high-quality economic and social development,especially in extreme drought conditions.The ability to ensure water resources security needs to be improved urgently.In view of this,this study focuses on the basic goal of improving the water supply security capability of Lanxi,and conducts research on the analysis of water supply conditions from multiple water sources in the water supply system,the analysis of the current water supply situation and the forecast of future annual water demand,and the joint optimal dispatching plan of multiple water sources,effectively improved the future water resources security guarantee capability of Lanxi,and developed a water supply dispatching management system to support decision-making.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The water supply conditions of Lanxi reservoir water,Lanjiang and water diversion outside the region are analyzed.Based on the water balance model with double parameters and the quantile mapping coupling method,a long series of monthly runoff data from 1960 to 2020 was established for the Zhiyan,Qiantanglong,and Chengtou reservoirs.The annual runoff of each reservoir has obvious characteristics of the same abundance and dryness in the interannual period,and the driest four consecutive months in a year are concentrated from August to January of the next year.The monthly average water intake of the Dengsheng Water Plant accounts for less than4%of the measured runoff of the Lanjiang River,and the water supply from the Lanjiang River to the Dengsheng Water Plant has a relatively high degree of water security.In terms of water diversion in Jinhua,water can be diverted continuously under normal conditions,but when Jinhua encounters events such as extreme drought,there is a risk that the water supply will be reduced or even stopped.(2)Forecast the comprehensive domestic water demand and industrial water demand of the whole city and district of Lanxi in 2025 and 2035.According to the water source,water plant,pipe network and main water supply area of Lanxi,the 16townships and streets in Lanxi are divided into four areas,namely Zhiyan Water Plant Area,Qiantanglong Water Plant Area,Chengtou Water Plant Area and Jinhua Water Diversion Area.The comprehensive domestic water consumption and industrial water consumption of each area are predicted by using the quota method and the relevant proportion method.Compared with the current annual raw water supply,the predicted increase in water demand and the rate of decline in water quotas are generally reasonable.(3)The topological map of the water supply system in Lanxi was established,the rules for the joint operation of reservoir groups and the complementary water supply of multiple water sources were drawn up,the joint optimal operation model for multiple water sources was established,and the water supply scheduling map for the graded and limited water supply of major reservoirs oriented to the water demand in 2025 was obtained Jointly optimize the scheduling scheme with multiple water sources.The simulation scheduling results based on the long series of runoff data from 1960 to 2020show that the city’s cumulative water shortage is 70.78 million m~3,and the annual maximum water shortage is 12.73 million m~3.Compared with the current dispatching plan and the multi-water source combined conventional dispatching plan,the multi-water source combination and the optimization of the reservoir dispatching map have reduced the cumulative water shortage of the city during the simulation period by 68.04million m~3 and 29.72 million m~3 respectively.The multi-water source combination has ensured that the assurance rate of Zhiyan Water Plant Area increased by 11.2%.After the optimization of the reservoir dispatching diagram,the assurance rate of the Zhiyan Water Plant Area increased by 23.5%,and the assurance rate of the Qiantanglong Water Plant Area and Chengtou Water Plant Area increased to over 98%.(4)Facing the water demand in 2035,considering the expansion of Shuangfengling Reservoir,the construction of Longmen Reservoir and the Northern Water Plant,the multi-water source joint optimal dispatching scheme under the new water supply system was studied.The simulation scheduling results based on long-term runoff data from 1960 to 2020 show that the city’s cumulative water shortage is 20.17million m~3,and the annual maximum water shortage is 9.21 million m~3.The amount is the largest,and the other areas are relatively small.All areas can meet the requirement of 95%water supply guarantee rate,and the guarantee rate of Qiantang Long Water Plant Area and Jinhua Water Diversion Area is close to 100%.Compared with the simulation results of the urban water supply system and dispatching plan in 2025,it is found that the new water supply project can reduce the city’s cumulative water shortage by 245.08 million m~3,and the annual maximum water shortage by 22.33 million m~3,which greatly improves the guarantee rate of Zhiyan Water Plant Area.(5)According to the calculation process of multi-water source joint dispatching scheme in Lanxi,the water supply dispatching management system was integrated and developed.Based on the Django+Vue framework,the“front-end and back-end separation”technology is adopted to realize functions such as data overview,basic data management,model modification,simulation scheduling,and plan decision-making.Changes in water and other conditions can be corrected to demand water data,adjust model parameters,and modify scheduling rules to provide managers with more reasonable decision-making solutions. |
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