A Multi-Agent Based Study Of Energy Efficiency Policy Mechanisms For Residential Operation Energy Consumption

Energy consumption for building operations has grown rapidly in recent years and now accounts for up to 30% of total global energy consumption.As an important part of the building sector,controlling the growth of energy consumption in the residential sector has become the key to energy saving and emission reduction.In this context,the National Development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Finance,and various local departments have introduced a series of energy-saving policies related to residential operation energy consumption to mitigate the continuous growth of residential operation energy consumption,but the mechanisms and effects of these policies have yet to be studied in depth.Most of the existing studies focus on the qualitative analysis of policy texts or macroscopic perspectives on the effects of policies,but lack detailed research on the inner mechanisms of policies and their paths of action.It is obviously out of touch with reality to over-simplify the process of policy action and make the policy and its effect follow a specific cause-and-effect relationship.This study analyzes the mechanism of policy action based on the perspective of micro subjects,considering government,residents and enterprises as subjects,and constructs a multi-subject simulation model of residential operation energy consumption to simulate the evolution of residential operation energy consumption under different policy scenarios,and the research results will provide a quantitative reference basis for the government to formulate energy-saving policies.The specific research contents are as follows:First,the mechanism model of the effect of energy-saving policies on residential operation energy consumption is constructed.Based on the LEAP model,the macro-level residential operation energy consumption is decomposed into the end-use equipment level,and the influencing factors of residential operation energy consumption are analyzed qualitatively,including the activity level of end-use equipment and energy consumption intensity.Based on the policy instrument theory,the types of policy instruments,action targets and action objects are identified,and the action mechanism framework of the policy is proposed.On this basis,based on the three existing policy tools of energy efficiency standards,energy pricing and sales price subsidies,the mechanism of action of command-and-control policies and economic incentive policies are analyzed respectively,laying the theoretical foundation for the establishment of a multi-subject simulation model in the later paper.Second,based on the subject modeling theory,a multi-subject simulation model of the effect of energy efficiency policies on residential operation energy consumption is established.According to the action mechanism model,a residential operation energy consumption system based on the government Agent,resident Agent and enterprise Agent as micro subjects is constructed,and the behavior rules of each subject and the evolution rules of residential operation energy consumption are designed.Among them,the behavior rules of the government agent are designed as various policy tools and control measures;the behavior rules of the resident agent are modeled based on the Kastovich decision model to model the decision behavior of residents in replacing and choosing equipment;the behavior rules of the enterprise agent are modeled based on the upgrade behavior of equipment technology and equipment pricing behavior.By designing the subject and operation energy consumption evolution rules,the bottom-up simulation model of residential operation energy consumption is constructed,and the action mechanism model is converted into a multi-subject simulation model that can be quantitatively calculated,laying the foundation for the simulation experiments later on.Finally,a simulation environment is developed based on AnyLogic and the results are verified to simulate different policy scenarios and their effects,and the optimal policy tool is proposed.The results of Any Logic simulation experiments are applied to verify the effectiveness of the simulation model by comparing the adoption rate of each energy efficiency level based on the equipment with the actual data.As a result,four policy scenarios are designed,including three single-policy scenarios and combined policy scenarios.The simulation results show that the selling price subsidy policy has the best effect on the subsidy rate of energy-efficient equipment at 23%,the energy efficiency standard policy strength has the best effect of increasing by 10%compared to the baseline scenario,energy pricing and energy savings always have a positive effect during the simulation period,and energy savings increase with energy pricing;the combination scenario of the three policy tools is able to reduce residential operation energy consumption by 35.04%.The results of the study further reveal three paths of the effect of energy efficiency policies on residential operating energy consumption.The main contribution of this study is to reveal the mechanism of energy efficiency policies on residential energy consumption from the perspective of micro-entities,and to reveal the process and effect of policies from the bottom up using a multi-entity modeling approach.The results of this study can be used as a reference for government policies related to residential energy efficiency.