Analysis Of Safety Influence Factors For Elevator Installation Based On Bayesian Network

According to the Notice of National Special Equipment Safety Situation issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation in 2022,elevator safety accidents are the third largest special equipment accidents after specialized motor vehicle and lifting machinery in the factory,the ranking of the number of accidents and fatalities both are in the Top 3.Therefore,it’s an important issue that studying the key influencing factors and causal chains of elevator installation accidents.Based on the theoretical knowledge of elevator installation and risk management,analyzing and exploring the key influencing factors and causal chains of elevator installation safety accidents could as be basis of focal suggestions and measures,and effectively control and hold the safety accidents of the elevator.Most of the existing research on elevator accidents focuses on elevator operation or quality of installation,but lacks in the deep research on safety accidents,especially the key influencing factors and the strength of influence of each factor on accidents.Based on the data-driven,this article analyzes the literature of scholars and the reports of elevator installation accident published by the State Administration for Market Regulation in recent years.Integrating with the survey questionnaire identifies the 15 important influencing factors that cause elevator installation safety accidents.Then,through interviews with senior experts in the industry,the relationship between each influencing factor is determined,and the Interpretative Structural Model is used to obtain a multi-level hierarchical structure of the influencing factors of elevator installation safety accidents,It is mapped to the Bayesian network(BN)model.Finally,the key influencing factors and causal chains of elevator installation safety risks are extracted by using the fault diagnosis function of the Bayesian network model,Including the analysis of reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis and strength of influence.The analysis results indicate that when illegal operations,incorrect wearing of protective equipment,failure to develop a special construction plan,poor installation environment,failure to implement safety management systems,lack of safety awareness,and weak government supervision and management occur simultaneously,the probability of safety risks is extremely high;Violation of regulations,incorrect wearing of protective equipment,unlicensed work,incomplete qualification of installation company,and lack of implementation of safety systems are key factors of safety accidents.A slight increase or decrease in the probability of these factors will increase or decrease sharply the probability of elevator installation safety accidents.They have a significant impact on the occurrence of accidents.When formulating safety management measures to prevent and decrease the safety risk,we need to focus on these factors;The biggest cause chain of elevator installation safety accidents is the path of "incomplete qualification of installation company → unlicensed work →illegal operations","failure to implement safety systems → unfulfillment of safety disclosure → lack of safety awareness → Incorrect wearing of protective equipment".To curb effectively the occurrence of elevator installation safety accidents,it is necessary to strengthen government supervision and management,strengthen management of installation site,and enhance safety awareness of all employee.Additionally,safety management systems should be implemented strictly in order to fundamentally eliminate illegal and irregular behavior by personnel.