Research On The Evaluation And Prediction Of The Development Level Of Characteristic Towns In Hangzhou

As economic and industrial transformation and upgrading and urbanization accelerate in recent years,urban space and boundaries grow rapidly,and characteristic towns emerge as a new mode of urbanization and form of industrial agglomeration.In 2014,it was first mentioned in Yunqi Town of Hangzhou.Later,this innovative economic model developed on the basis of block economy and county economy was rapidly promoted throughout the country.The development of Hangzhou characteristic town is urgently requiring examination.This paper evaluates and forecasts its level of development,providing a foundation for the sustainable and healthy growth of the town.Additionally,it examines the construction of a high-quality characteristic town,the preservation of its "characteristic," and the status quo and future of the town.Firstly,this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in characteristic towns,focuses on the relevant research of characteristic towns in Hangzhou,explores the development of typical characteristic towns,and systematically elaborates on the classification and concept analysis of characteristic towns.Secondly,through the DPSIR model,taking the healthy development of Hangzhou characteristic towns as the target layer,and comprehensively considering social,economic and environmental factors,23 evaluation indicators of Hangzhou characteristic towns were finally determined.The weights of each index in the evaluation system were calculated by the combined weighting method,and the development level evaluation model of Hangzhou characteristic towns was constructed by TOPSIS,and then the development level of Hangzhou characteristic towns was evaluated by combining the obstacle model.Finally,the development level of characteristic towns in Hangzhou from 2022 to 2026 is predicted by three prediction methods: quadratic exponential smoothing method,GM(1,1)prediction model and LSTM neural network,and the prediction performance of various evaluation indicators and comprehensive evaluation results is comparatively analyzed,and countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of characteristic towns in Hangzhou are put forward from three aspects: grasping Internet resources,making full use of natural resources,and clarifying development goals.The results show that:(1)The development level of characteristic towns in Hangzhou fluctuated significantly from 2016 to 2021,showing a trend of "first increase,then decrease and then increase",and the index reached a peak of 0.7104 in 2019 and then showed a downward trend;from the perspective of the standard layer system,the development level of each subsystem showed up and down fluctuations.From the perspective of obstacle factors,the response,influence and state systems dominate the development level of characteristic towns in Hangzhou,and each obstacle factor is in a state of constant change.At the same time,the main obstacles restricting the level of development have also changed,from infrastructure construction investment in 2016 and the number of relevant policies introduced in Hangzhou characteristic towns to indicators such as fixed asset investment in characteristic towns and greening coverage rate in urban areas in 2021.(2)After the comparison of prediction models,LSTM model is more suitable for evaluating the development level of characteristic towns in Hangzhou than the prediction results of exponential smoothing method and GM(1,1)model.The results show that with the improvement of global novel coronavirus pneumonia,the development level of characteristic towns in Hangzhou will show a steady upward trend from 2022 to 2026.Figure [20] table [26] reference [79]...