| In recent years,with the rapid growth of air traffic in the civil aviation industry and the increasing number of airports,advanced technologies and facilities used in air transport at home and abroad have been developed and improved.In order to cope with airspace constraints and traffic growth,more and more airports at home and abroad are choosing to build parallel runways and use multiple operating modes to improve operational efficiency.Among them,Established on RNP AR(EoR)approach is a new application of RNP AR technology in parallel approach to multiple runways,which can effectively reduce the downwind and final leg approach mileage compared with traditional instrument approach,and can be used in busy terminal areas with restricted airspace or terrain to achieve continuous descent and energy saving,in line with This is in line with the development goals of safe,green,efficient and intelligent civil aviation.However,in the actual operation process,as the alarm logic of TCAS system is difficult to adapt to the characteristics of EoR approach technology,the aircraft in the process of independent parallel approach into the final leg is prone to similar altitude,resulting in TCAS may have unnecessary alarm phenomenon,which seriously affects the flight safety and operational efficiency,so it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and analysis for this problem.This thesis focuses on the analysis of conflict risk under EoR-based operation,combining the TCAS conflict warning logic and the EoR approach trajectory model,using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the TCAS conflict warning risk probability under the uncertainty of aircraft status in the approach,and propose corresponding improvement measures by analysing the actual influencing factors.Firstly,the EoR approach trajectory model is built based on the technical characteristics of the EoR operating procedure,and the position simulation model is built through the straight and turning segments respectively,and then the positioning error model is built based on the lateral deviation and vertical deviation to simulate the trajectory of the aircraft during the approach.A TCAS conflict detection model is then built to determine the TCAS conflict situation based on the logical flow of the conflict alert.Finally,by using MATLAB to analyze the actual case,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to randomly generate the aircraft initial position,flight speed and positioning error that obey a normal distribution,and the probability of TCAS conflict alarm in EoR approach under uncertain flight status and the location where the conflict is easily triggered are derived through extensive simulation.Combined with the control variables method to calculate and analyse the factors influencing the risk of TCAS conflict alarms,and propose corresponding improvement measures for the factors that are prone to trigger TCAS conflict alarms,in order to provide theoretical support for the subsequent reduction or avoidance of such phenomena. |