| Urban residents have growing demand for delivery of takeaways,medicines and other goods.However,after the covid-19 outbreak,the requirements for contactless transportation and the congested ground transportation environment have restricted the development of traditional express delivery ground delivery services.The current booming urban air traffic,using unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)as vehicles,can transfer cargos from the ground to the air,reducing personnel contact and relieving ground traffic congestion.Since the commercial operation of UAVs has not yet been widely popularized,the amount of data in the real world is not enough to cover such traffic scenarios.And considering various factors such as policy,technology,safety,and public acceptance,cities should not open up low-altitude airspace too early.If data can be collected and quantitatively predicted for the market demand and residents’ preference for urban air delivery,the result will be conducive to the scientific and healthy development of urban air delivery.This paper applies the idea of the four-stage process of ground traffic macro demand forecasting to the field of urban air delivery.First of all,this paper divides the traffic districts in the high-tech southern district of Chengdu in order based on administrative boundaries,terrain isolation,road types,land types,and distribution areas;and according to the population distribution of the existing administrative areas and the economic development of the logistics industry regression analysis completes the traffic production;then uses the gravity model to predict the future traffic volume of all delivery modes in each traffic district to complete the traffic distribution.In the stage of mode split,this paper studies the market demand of domestic users for UAVs and its influencing factors,taking the motors and cars as comparative options,and taking Chengdu Fourth Ring Road and high-tech southern district as examples to carry out the stated preference survey(SP survey),a total of 2008 valid questionnaires were collected.This paper completes attribute variable dimension reduction through principal component analysis,finally builds a discrete choice model.According to the data in this survey,the latent class logit model performs better than other models.So it is used to analyze the market share of UAVs,and divides the respondents into five latent classes.Their individual attributes,family characteristics,and preferences for the types of goods are analyzed.Among the five classes,high-quality life pursuers,fashion icons,and strivers have higher acceptance of UAVs.Based on the quantitative analysis of elasticity and WTP,we found that although motors always occupy a dominant position in the market,UAVs are more competitive than cars at the price of 0-9.5 CNY.We believes that with the development of technology and society,the market share of UAVs is expected to reach about 25%.The research results contribute to the market share of UAV delivery service,user analysis of delivery service and market pricing research. |
