Method And Application Of Slope Safety Risk Assessment For Operational Expressway Based On Combination Of GABP And AHP

Slope safety risk assessment is one of the core contents in disaster prevention and reduction of traffic engineering,which has important academic significance and practical value.The current slope safety risk assessment is still in the preliminary stage of development,usually targeted at a specific slope geological disaster,and the assessment content is incomplete.However,slope geological disasters in the operation process of highway slopes often take multiple forms.Failure to timely identify the form of slope diseases and distinguish the severity of diseases results in the inability to effectively prevent major slope geological disasters,ultimately leading to serious collapses,landslides,and other large-scale geological disasters,or even causing serious casualties,property damage,and social impacts.Considering the multi-hazard situation,slope safety risk assessment is one of the key technologies to ensure the stability and operational safety of the highway slopes,and the slope safety risk of highways has significant stage characteristics that should be appropriately and specifically addressed.Our work focuses on a multi-hazard phased whole-process highway slope safety risk assessment system.Based on a large amount of highway slope geological disaster data samples in Guangdong Province,the neural network method(GABP)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),which are currently rapidly developing and becoming increasingly mature,are combined to model and apply to the highway slope safety risk assessment engineering practice in Guangdong Province.The main research content,methods and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the construction and maintenance engineering practices of over 50,000 roadbed slopes along 40 highways of Guangdong Provincial Transportation Construction Group,common types of slope geological diseases on mountain highways were summarized.The safety risk sources and influencing factors of various slope geological diseases were analyzed,and 61 slope safety risk assessment factors in 9 categories were summarized to establish a multi-hazard phased whole-process highway slope safety risk assessment system.(2)Based on 1,719 slope geological disease cases that occurred on Guangdong highways in the past five years and considering the positive and negative samples of different disease types,the GABP network was trained by 70% of the data samples and establish a slope geological disaster susceptibility evaluation model,which was optimized with a network structure of full input and 15 hidden layer nodes.The prediction accuracy of the remaining30% of the data samples was as follows: erosion and detachment 80.6%,falling rocks and debris 99.4%,sliding and collapsing 89.8%,collapse 98.8%,and landslide 95.6%.(3)Using the AHP method combined with expert experience,a slope geological disaster hazard and vulnerability assessment model was established.Based on expert experience,a hierarchical analysis method model for hazard and vulnerability of erosion and detachment,falling rocks and debris,sliding and collapsing,collapse,and landslide was obtained,as well as the judgment matrix,and calculation formula were established.The comprehensive slope safety risk assessment indicators and level division method were established.(4)The slope safety risk assessment system studied in this article has demonstrated its feasibility by conducting geological hazard susceptibility assessments at 95 high slopes along the Yunmao Expressway.The consistence of the assessments was verified on-site by experts,with erosion and detachment at 0.825,falling rocks and boulders at 1.000,collapse and sliding at 0.839,collapse at 1.000,and landslide at 0.989.Currently,this assessment system has been promoted and applied to the safety risk assessment system construction of 407 slope pilot projects on the Guangfozhao Expressway and the Jiebo Expressway in Guangdong Province,and management advice under different risks are given.