Study On Landslide Hazard Risk Assessment Method And Its Application

Landslide is one of the most common geological disasters, it is not only a threat tohuman life and production, but also has serious damage to resources, environment,property, etc.. Therefore, to carry out risk assessment of landslide hazard assessment oflandslide, the possibility and the loss caused by landslide disaster, is a key project oflandslide research.The work of landslide hazard risk existing assessment, research are mainly focusedon large area, large area landslide zonation of landslide hazards, and for local, singlerisk assessment is relatively small. In fact, single landslide disasters caused by moredirect, to carry out risk assessment research of single landslide, it is necessary to. Thispaper choose the road of single landslide as the object of study, aims to build a suitablefor the highway landslide risk assessment method system, and the Chongqing WanLiang high-speed Zhang Jiaping landslide landslide risk assessment through theapplication to complete. The research work of this paper and the results are as follows:①The basic features of the disaster and the risk of landslide, landslide risk researchin distinguishing concept, and through the research on the landslide risk assessmentsystem, construct the landslide hazard risk assessment framework.②By using the principle of reliability analysis, the failure probability as theevaluation index, constructed the risk evaluation model based on Monte Carlo method,through the establishment of landslide year failure probability and risk relationship,realize the risk assessment. The failure probability according to the natural, earthquake,storm three circumstances; for the natural condition, the transfer coefficient method as astate function; for the seismic condition, consider the seismic force, and simplify it,namely the seismic landslide slid to processing, acting on each slide block centre forheavy rain condition, the; slide the saturation line is difficult to determine the problem,in this paper, according to the most unfavorable condition for consideration, constructsthe landslide under the condition of saturation of the instability probability calculationmodel, and finally realizes the landslide risk evaluation.③In the vulnerability assessment, the types of disaster bearing body, not one byone assessment. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the vulnerability factors,the hierarchy, the fuzzy characteristics, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, andconstruct the vulnerability evaluation model based on fuzzy mathematics.④The landslide risk evaluation method system on risk assessment, implementation of Zhangjiaping slide, the evaluation results show: Zhang Jiaping landslide undernatural conditions in the instability probability is0.003, belonging to moderate risk; inseismic condition years instability probability is0.0142, belongs to the highlydangerous; in the storm conditions instability probability for0.0549years belongs to thehighly dangerous;Vulnerability is the low vulnerability.through calculation,Zhangjiaping slide in natural condition of landslide total risk is7793900yuan, annualmortality population is0.054people/year; seismic condition of landslide total risk is10555100yuan, annual mortality population is0.256people/year; the storm conditionsof landslide total risk is12158400yuan the annual death rate, population is0.988people/year; are not acceptable risk, should take timely measures of risk management,to ensure that people’s property and life safety.