| Temporary construction interruptions of rail transit systems include new line access,equipment upgrades,updates,maintenance and other reasons.They are usually planned interruptions ranging from a few days to several months.Although this kind of interruption is not sudden and will not cause a large number of passengers to be stranded suddenly,if the construction involves too many stations and the area is too large,it will bring inconvenience to passengers’ normal travel and increase the pressure on the road traffic in this interrupted section.Therefore,with the help of other passenger transport resources,timely deployment of external transport capacity,to supplement or replace the declining rail transport capacity is very necessary.1.This paper studies the operation organization problems of connecting buses under short-term disruption such as rail transit,including:(a)Analysis of passenger flow characteristics under short-term disruption of rail transitThe passenger flow affected by short-term disruption of rail transit is classified according to the relationship between OD and the location of the interrupted station,and the degree of impact of short-term disruption on passenger flow is deeply analyzed.In addition,a questionnaire is used to investigate the preference of passengers in connection selection under rail transit disruption,and the influencing factors and degree of passenger connection mode selection are analyzed.Provide data support for followup research.(b)Forecast of bus connection demand under short-term disruption of rail transitBased on the passenger connection selection survey data,the SEM-Logit integrated model considering the effect of latent variables was constructed.AMOS was used to construct SEM structural equation model for connection mode selection,and the relationships between observed variables and latent variables,latent variables and latent variables were deeply analyzed,and the SEM-Logit model was integrated to predict the sharing rate and transfer probability of connection mode.The accuracy and accuracy of the improved model are verified by comparing the integrated model with the traditional multiple Logit model through the hit ratio test.(c)Optimization design of the operation scheme of rail transit connecting busFirstly,through the absorption degree of bus network around rail transit to select rail transit + bus passenger flow,the passenger flow demand of connecting bus is obtained,and the addition of connecting bus is determined according to the starting threshold of connecting bus.The connection interval is determined and the connecting bus route set is constructed,and a reasonable stop-stop combination scheme is designed.Then,a multi-objective optimization model with soft time window is constructed with the goal of minimizing passenger travel cost and bus operating cost,and the bus operation optimization scheme is obtained by using genetic algorithm.(d)Case analysisTaking the short-term interruption of metro Line 3 in Changchun as an example,based on SEM-Logit mode selection model and passenger flow data,the passenger flow OD of bus connection demand is obtained.Use trans CAD software to assign the transit demand passenger flow OD to the surrounding bus network of rail transit and overlay the existing passenger capacity,analyze the transit demand of the remaining passenger flow beyond the capacity of the bus network,and determine the passenger flow demand of the transit bus.Based on the interrupt interval,the receiving bus route set is constructed.The optimal driving path between stations at different times is investigated and the passing time of the connecting route arc is calibrated.According to the unbalance coefficient between stations,the station-to-stop combination scheme is optimized,and a multi-objective bus connection scheme of mixed vehicle type is established and solved by MATLAB software.The research results can provide reference for the decision-making of bus connecting organization during the short-term interruption of urban rail transit... |
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