Research On Energy Congestion Effect And Simulation Of Management Strategy In Transport

The strategic targets of peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality put forward new requirements for the future systematic reform of China’s economy and society.As a pillar industry of national economic development,the transportation industry should also respond positively and accelerate the green transformation and upgrading of its own industry.With the increasing demand for goods transportation,the energy consumption of transportation industry is also increasing sharply.On one hand,it shows that the scale of transportation industry is constantly growing.While,on the other hand,it also implies that the transportation industry may have an energy congestion effect.When this effect exists,it will not only hinder the increase of economic output,but also cause unnecessary waste of energy input factors,thus affecting the green and sustainable development of economy and environment.Therefore,it is necessary to study the existence of energy congestion effect in transportation and its management strategy.In this paper,firstly,a FGL radial measurement model suitable for the identification of energy congestion effect in transportation industry is established under the framework of DEA theory,and on the basis of this model,the energy congestion effect in the whole transportation industry and some provinces is measured and analyzed respectively.Then,according to the measurement results,Hunan Province,which has the most serious energy congestion effect,is selected as the representative research object,and the system dynamics simulation model to deal with the energy congestion effect is constructed in turn according to the modeling steps such as system boundary analysis,causal loop analysis,system flow diagram model drawing,variable expression design,parameter setting and model authenticity test.Finally,based on the established system dynamics model and FGL radial measurement model,the development trend of energy consumption and the change trend of energy congestion efficiency of Hunan transportation industry under the original model parameter scenario without additional management countermeasures are simulated,and the sensitivity of each single countermeasure variable to energy consumption is analyzed to explore the countermeasures to effectively reduce the redundancy of energy input and slow down the energy congestion effect.Finally,based on the above analysis results,the management strategy combination to deal with the energy congestion effect is formulated.The results show that reducing the unit energy consumption of transportation means,adjusting the structure of transportation industry and the proportion structure of transportation means are the most significant measures to reduce the energy input factors,and the combination of strategy formulated according to this can effectively alleviate the energy congestion effect of transportation industry in Hunan Province,and to some extent,alleviate the inhibitory effect of energy congestion effect on its economic output.The research results of this paper are helpful for the transportation industry to discover and identify the existence of its own energy congestion effect,and put forward specific management countermeasures and suggestions for the transportation industry to deal with and avoid the occurrence of energy congestion effect from various aspects,which is conducive to promoting the green and sustainable development of the transportation industry and the overall realization of the strategic targets of peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.