Research On Generation Expansion Planning At Power Generation Side Under The "Dual Carbon" And Market Competition Environment

With the deepening of electricity market reform and the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal,the introduction of market competition on the power generation side and carbon emission reduction policies has brought new challenges and research directions to the power generation side generation expansion planning problem in a competitive environment of the market.In view of the power generation side market environment,considering the market bidding mechanism,carbon emission reduction policies,and other factors to study the power generation side generation expansion planning problem,and constructing a generation expansion planning game model that can simulate the competition between multiple power generation groups,it is of great significance to realize the stable development of the power generation market,help the power generation group to formulate a reasonable power planning schemes,assist the government departments to implement scientific market rules and energy policies,and promote the transformation of energy structure in the new era.In this paper,from the perspective of the power generation side market,considering the market competition and energy policies,the modeling and simulation of the power generation side generation expansion planning problem are carried out based on the power generation side market environment and multi-agent modeling methods.Firstly,a multi-agent game model for the power generation side generation expansion planning is established by analyzing the game relationship and interaction behavior among the power generation side market players,and the power generation groups,power generation market environment,and consumers are packaged and designed with agents.Secondly,the PAB(Pay As Bid)electricity price mechanism is introduced to determine future market electricity prices in the generation expansion planning problem at the power generation side,and a market game model of the PAB electricity price mechanism is established.And the simulation of the generation expansion planning game model under the electricity price mechanism considering the supply and demand relationship and the PAB electricity price mechanism is conducted respectively,and the market evolution results under the two electricity price mechanisms are compared and analyzed.Finally,based on the carbon emissions trading mechanism and the green certificate trading mechanism,the impact of different carbon emission reduction incentive policies on the power generation side power planning schemes and the evolution of power structure is studied.Through example simulation and comparative analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:1)Compared to the electricity price mechanism considering the supply and demand relationship,the impact of unreasonable market parameter settings in the supply and demand relationship is avoided effectively in the PAB electricity price mechanism,making the market evolution results more reliable and conducive to the long-term development of the power generation market.2)The carbon emissions trading mechanism promotes the transformation of the power supply structure by suppressing traditional thermal power generation.Power generation groups will put clean energy units into operation earlier when the carbon trading price is higher,but excessively high prices will still bring high carbon transaction costs.However,when the carbon trading price is too low,its emission reduction benefits are not as good as those caused by high coal power operating costs,and its incentive effect on renewable energy is limited.And if the carbon offsetting mechanism is considered in the carbon trading market,it will further enhance the promotion effect of the carbon trading mechanisms on renewable energy power generation.3)The direct target of the green certificate trading mechanism is non-water renewable energy,which can improve the market competitiveness of non-water renewable energy units and have a certain inhibitory effect on traditional thermal power generation.4)The combination of the green certificate and carbon emission trading mechanisms has greatly promoted the transformation of the power structure and the healthy development of renewable energy,the installed proportion of renewable energy units has greatly increased,which is superior to the transformative effect of the power structure when considering the two mechanisms alone.The carbon emission reduction benefits are more obvious,and have a more positive role in promoting the realization of the low-carbon emission reduction goals and energy transformation.