Research On The Impact Of Energy Price Fluctuation On China’s Economy

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly,and the demand for energy is increasing.Energy has special properties and is closely related to our production and life.However,with the rapid development of economy,the gap between energy supply and demand is widening,and the impact of energy price fluctuation on various industries is increasingly prominent.Energy problem has become the bottleneck of economic development.Analyzing the impact of energy price fluctuation on various industries and evaluating the risks of various industries during energy price fluctuation.It can provide theoretical reference for managers.Therefore,there is a strong practical significance on the research.This paper analyzed the impact of energy price fluctuation on macro-economy and various industries.Through VAR model,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition method,the impact of energy price fluctuation on macro-economy was analyzed by using international crude oil futures price.international crude oil spot price,domestic coal and oil price,domestic price level and GDP.It was found that the impact of international energy price on domestic energy is positive.The impact of energy price fluctuations on PPI is more significant than CPI,and they are also positive.The rise of international energy prices will push up the domestic price level;Energy price fluctuation has a negative impact on domestic GDP,and the period of impact is longer.In addition,the input-output method ranked the impacts of four kinds of energy sources on various industries under the premise of 10%price increase.It was found that from 2007 to 2017,the dependence of all industries on energy sources has decreased,and the risks of chemical industry,metal mining and dressing industry,metal smelting and rolling processing industry and nonmetallic mineral products industry are relatively high.In the last part of the paper,according to the conclusions analyzed above,it is suggested to introduce new technologies and new processes,promote energy-saving technology update,eliminate enterprises with high energy consumption and low efficiency,optimize and upgrade the industrial structure,develop new energy sources,establish energy reserve system and improve the energy futures market.This paper hopes to provide reference for managers in the process of industrial structure transformation.