Research On Electric Heating Load And Demand Response Characteristics Based On Individual Behavior

In order to achieve the goal of "Peak carbon dioxide emissions-Carbon neutrality" strategy and consolidate the achievements of the "Blue Sky Defense War",the state strongly supports electric heating and other clean heating measures.By the end of 2021,electric energy substitution measures have accounted for 12.8%of clean heating technologies and 18 million households have been renovated.The increasing volume of electric heating load access may cause problems such as increased peak-to-valley differences and scale climbs in the grid,affecting the economy and stability of the system.On the other hand,the use of demand-side response to reduce the peak-to-valley difference and promote the balance of power supply and demand has become a consensus.The electric heating load is an important resource for demand-side response due to the thermal inertia of the building and the ambiguity of human thermal comfort,and thus has strong adjustability within a certain period of time.Therefore,it is important to study the electric heating load and its demand-side response characteristics to alleviate the above-mentioned problems arising from the large-scale electric heating load connected to the grid,and to develop a scientific demand-side response mechanism.Existing studies on electric heating load mostly take households as the smallest decision-making unit and analyse their demand response characteristics in a fixed scenario,neglecting the influence of individual decisions on heating behaviour,as well as the influence of user interaction and social environment on participation in demand-side response behaviour,which may cause results to differ significantly from reality.To this end,this paper focuses on both the individual behaviour-driven formation of electric heating load and the dynamic evolution of their demand response.The former is devoted to the characterisation of the electric heating load,while the latter builds on this work to study the demand response characteristics of electric heating loads in conjunction with the dynamic evolution of individual perspectives.Firstly,an agent-based modelling approach is adopted to establish a model of regional electric heating load characteristics based on individual spatio-temporal behaviour,using household members as the smallest decision-making unit and a bottom-up hierarchy including individual,household and regional layers.The model can provide data support and lay the foundation for the study of electric heating demand response characteristics.And then,based on the analysis of the current constraints of electric heating load participation in demand response,a two-level viewpoint dynamics research framework for electric heating customers’ participation in demand-side response is proposed,taking into account two types of viewpoint behavioural drivers which are willingness to participate and degree of participation.Next,A viewpoint dynamics model for demand-side response of electric heating region is established,which considers personality heterogeneity for viewpoint value definition and user type classification;considers social networks and bounded trust to specify viewpoint exchange conditions;considers multiple benefit assessment to establish users’ satisfaction and load aggregators’ satisfaction,and considers dual satisfaction evaluation to construct dynamics update rules.Finally,the validity and reasonableness of the model are verified by combining with actual examples,and the correlation and sensitivity factors of load characteristics are analysed in depth.The research results can support the upgrading of power grids adapted to clean heating renovation,and provide theoretical support and valuable reference for the response effect of the initial implementation of demand-side response in clean heating renovation areas.