Seismic Resilience Assessment Of Medical Buildings Based On Discrete Event Simulation

Hospitals play a key role in post-earthquake emergency rescue,but they are also vulnerable to damage in earthquakes.The damage of structural components,nonstructural components,medical equipment and medicines will affect the function of a hospital.In order to evaluate the performance of the post-earthquake medical system,many scholars have adopted the computer simulation method to evaluate a certain department of a post-earthquake hospital,the whole hospital or the regional medical network.Among these methods,discrete event simulation method can be used to describe the path and process of the injuries in hospitals and therefore it is widely used in the field of post-earthquake resilience assessment of medical system.However,in the current related research,there is still a lack of related models due to the difficulty in collecting data.Therefore,this paper developed a framework for evaluating the performance of hospital system after earthquakes,which comprehensively considers the model of the wounded arriving at the hospital after earthquakes,the model of component repair and room shutdown after earthquakes,the model of classification and treament process of the wounded,the model of the time distribution of medical treatment,the model of the resources occupied by medical treatment,etc.In addition,the probabilistic seismic demand analysis,fault tree analysis,Monte Carlo simulation,and discrete event simulation were adopted to obtain the corresponding functional indexes of hospital system after earthquakes.Then the resilience level of the analyzed hospital can be evaluated.The main contents of this paper include:1.This paper introduces the research background and significance,and expounds the concept of seismic resilience of medical system.This paper introduces the research methods and progress of resilience evaluation of medical system at present.2.The framework of hospital post-earthquake resilience evaluation is established,and the methods of probabilistic earthquake demand analysis and vulnerability analysis are used to establish the fragility of related components.The quantitative indexes of hospital function after earthquakes were established,including waiting time for the wounded to seek medical treatment,the proportion of treated injuries,resources occupation rate,etc.3.The seismic fragility curves of related components are obtained through probabilistic seismic demand analysis and fragility analysis.The fault tree models of emergency departments and related rooms in the whole hospital were developed through fault tree analysis.The damage of each component under the given seismic intensity is obtained through Monte Carlo simulation.Then the seismic damage of each room in the hospital can be obtained.4.By collecting relevant data,the model of the wounded arriving at the hospital after earthquakes,the model of component repair and room shutdown after earthquakes,the model of classification and treatment process of the wounded,the model of the distribution of medical treatment time and the model of the occupation of medical resources are developed.These models provide corresponding input data for the development of discrete event simulation model.5.Discrete event simulation of the emergency department of the hospital was carried out,and several functional indexes were obtained,such as the waiting time of the wounded,the staying time of the wounded in the hospital,the proportion of treated injuries and the resources occupation rate.According to the above indexes,the probability of receiving treatment in the best treatment time and the occupation of various resources in the emergency department can be obtained,so that relevant personnel can make corresponding adjustment countermeasures.In addition,the effects of components with different performances on the function of emergency departments were investigated.It can be found that the performance difference of components has little influence on the performance of emergency departments under service level earthquake(SLE)and design basis earthquake(DBE)while has certain influence on the performance of hospitals under maximum considered earthquake(MCE).6.The maximum number of wounded people that the whole hospital can receive was defined as the number when at least 90%of all types of wounded people can receive treatment within the best treatment time.Considering that the hospital receives not only local wounded people but also outside wounded people,the distribution of the maximum number of wounded people that the hospital can receive under MCE was obtained,as well as the functional indicators such as the length of stay of the wounded in the hospital and the occupation of resources.7.Summarize the main research work and conclusions of this paper,and put forward the prospect of future work.