Risk Evaluation Study Of Dangerous Goods Air Transport Based On System Dynamics

With the continuous expansion of the global market and the steady promotion of various economic policies,the demand and throughput of air cargo continues to grow.The demand for air transportation of dangerous goods is on the rise,the variety of hidden dangerous goods being transported is getting more and more complicated,IATA rules are updated frequently,and accidents such as lithium battery fires occur occasionally,so the requirements and pressure on the safety supervision of dangerous goods air transportation are getting higher and higher.The analysis and summary of a large amount of literature and information on dangerous goods air transport can be concluded that the risk assessment of dangerous goods air transport is mostly conducted from a holistic and general level without defining the subject of the study for risk assessment.In this paper,we simulate and analyze the risk of dangerous goods air transportation based on system dynamics and propose corresponding countermeasures based on the results,in order to solve the problems of dangerous goods air transportation,reduce the risk of dangerous goods air transportation and promote the sustainable development of airline companies.This paper firstly compares and summarizes the current situation of dangerous goods air transportation at home and abroad,defines the core concepts of dangerous goods,dangerous goods characteristics,dangerous goods accidents and air transportation risks,explains the laws,regulations and policies of dangerous goods air transportation at home and abroad,and establishes airlines as the main subject of research.Secondly,by extracting and mining the text of the dangerous goods manuals and operation instructions of China Eastern Airlines,sorting out the user-defined dictionary of dangerous goods,establishing the co-occurrence network diagram and word cloud,combining the current situation of dangerous goods air transportation and field research,summarizing four primary indicators such as human-caused risk and environmental risk,and fifteen secondary indicators such as document inspection and dangerous goods warehouse,and analyzing and organizing the potential problems and risks in the risk indicators.The potential problems and risks in the risk indicators are analyzed and organized.Then,using the system dynamics VENSIM simulation software,we construct the risk causality diagram of dangerous goods air transportation,collect relevant data and determine the weight of each risk factor by using expert scoring and entropy weighting method.and establish the inventory flow diagram of dangerous goods air transportation risk management level for risk dynamic simulation analysis,which can show the trend of the overall risk level of dangerous goods transportation over time.The risk value of each subsystem is increased by 10%and 20%respectively for simulation,and the importance of the primary risk indicators is ranked as human-caused risk,environmental risk,equipment risk and management risk,and the sensitivity of the secondary risk indicators,such as document inspection,emergency event and cargo inspection,is higher.Finally,we propose corresponding risk control measures for human-caused risk,environmental risk,equipment risk and management risk,etc.Different airlines can use different data according to their own actual situation to get the assessment results that match their enterprises,and then optimize the operation mechanism based on the assessment results,so as to continuously improve the enterprise’s risk prevention ability and ability to deal with risk problems.