Research On Carbon Neutral Path Optimization Of Power System Considering Energy-climate Coupling Mechanism

With the increase in the average temperature of the global atmosphere,the potential impact of climate change has gradually become prominent.The phenomenon of "meeting summer peaks" faced by the modern power system is even more significant,at the same time,the winter load is also increasing year by year.The emergence of extreme weather such as cold waves,droughts,and excessive precipitation is becoming more frequent.Under the severe climate change situation,the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality oriented power structure transformation of the power system is an important issue to solve.As one of the main sources of carbon emissions in China,the power industry bears tremendous pressure of emission reduction.The orderly exit of thermal power generation,especially coal,and the expansion path of new energy units have become the focus at present.In order to solve the optimal path for the power system to achieve carbon neutrality target in the context of climate change,this paper explores the mutual feed coupling mechanism between energy system and climate system,and the power structure two-layer optimization model is established to obtain the optimal evolution path of the power structure.It is of great significance for the future low-carbon development of the power industry.The main work and results of the paper are as follows:(1)Energy-Climate Mutual Coupling Mechanism Modeling.Establish an Energy-Climate mutual coupling model,and divide the impact of climate change on the power industry into two dimensions of annual electricity consumption and annual load peak as power load prediction link;global carbon emissions decompose according to the source,focus on analyzing the emission of the power industry,calculate the carbon emission status of power system from an energy perspective.Carbon emissions from other industries except the power industry and other countries except China are regarded as exogenous variables,adding the model to calculate the global atmosphere of carbon stock.Then use the Perpetual Inventory Method to calculate the capital stock,combine the Cabb-Douglas production function to simulate economic output,propose the basic calculation method of carbon dioxide emissions;establish carbon stock models and temperature rise models to describe the relationship between energy-side carbon emissions and climate system temperature rise.Finally,by comparing the model calculation results and actual historical data,the effectiveness of the model is verified.(2)Feature Analysis of Power Generation Technologies and Two-layer Optimization Model Based on Model Predicive Control(MPC).Analyze the characteristics of different power generation technologies,introduce the capacity coefficient index of power generation to characterize the actual power generation capacity of different technologies,treat renewable energy power generation capabilities as uncertain issues,and propose predictive methods for renewable energy uncertain capacity coefficient index;consider the influence of load-side control technology progressing,which is characterized by the reduction of climate sensitivity in load side and the improvement of capacity coefficient index of wind power and solar power generation technology.Considering construction costs,operating costs,carbon emissions costs and annual regulation costs,then propose the two-layer optimization model and its solution method,providing method support for the research of this paper.(3)Power System Carbon Neutral Pathway and Analysis based on the Energy-Climate Mutual Coupling Model and MPC Two-layer Optimization Model.Based on the energyclimatic mutual coupling model and two-layer optimization model,set parameters and three development scenarios:benchmark scenario,low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario.Compare the results of different evolution scenarios,then perform the Sobol sensitivity analysis of the model,use Monte Carlo estimation method to calculate the first-order and global influence factors of the key parameters.Then analyse the impact of different parameters input on the evolution path through two indicators.Finally give targeted suggestions to promote low-carbon evolution in the power structure of the power industry in China.