Cause Analysis Of Safety Accidents In Super High-rise Buildings Based On Probit Model

As an important part of China’s construction,super high-rise buildings have been developing with the rapid growth of the national economy,but at the same time,due to the particularity of the structure and working environment,the development of super high-rise buildings is often accompaned by huge safety risks,and witha high accident and risk,"mixed reputation",The accident rate and damage degree caused by the high-altitude construction and deep foundation pit excavation of super high-rise buildings are far higher than that of other types of buildings.Falling from high places and falling objects from high places are also continuous threats,which leads to the very serious consequences of the safety accidents of super high-rise buildings once they occur,threatening public safety and having a great impact on society.In this context,how to effectively identify the key influencing factors of safety accidents in super high-rise buildings,clarify the impact of various factors on the severity of accidents,and prevent the recurrence of similar accidents have become the"pain point of industry development".Therefore,this study takes the safety accidents of super high-rise buildings as the research object,based on the research of accident cause mechanism and relevant fields,combined with the accident investigation report,preliminarily analyzes and screens the potential factors influencing the safety accidents of super high-rise buildings from three aspects of accident characteristics,project characteristics and organizational characteristics.Based on the availability of sample data,226 typical super high-rise building safety accidents occurred in recent years have been collected and obtained through the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the State and all provinces and cities,emergency management departments and other government information portals,and supplemented by the accident information published by various news media.Combined with the selected indicators,41 accident cases lacking effective information were screened and eliminated,and finally a super-high building safety accident case database containing 185 safety accidents was built,and each indicator value was quantified and assigned.On this basis,descriptive statistics were made on the case samples from macro and micro aspects to obtain the distribution characteristics of the relevant characteristic indicators of super-high building safety accidents.In order to deeply explore the characteristics and impact of the safety accident data of super high-rise buildings,this paper conducts Pearson correlation test and multicollinearity test on the accident indicators,and determines the accident type,building height,building use and other indicators as the explanatory variables affecting the severity of the accident.Since the severity of safety accidents in super high-rise buildings is often expressed as the degree of casualties and direct economic losses,the ordered probit model and the bivariate probit model of the severity of safety accidents in super high-rise buildings are established with casualties and direct economic losses as the explanatory variables,and the models are compared from the aspects of parameter estimation,model Goodness of fit and accident prediction accuracy.The model comparison results show that the bivariate probit model is more suitable for the analysis in this paper,and can better analyze and explain the causes of safety accidents in super high-rise buildings.Comparing the parameter estimation results of the two models,it can be seen that although there are certain differences between the two models,the explanatory effect on the dependent variable is basically the same when based on the same explanatory variable.The final results indicate that the probability of fatalities and serious economic losses caused by fires and collapses is significantly higher than other types of accidents,and the probability of these two types of accidents occurring due to management factors is also significantly higher than other factors;The probability of two types of accidents occurring during the decoration and operation stages is significantly lower than that during the construction stage.The probability of two types of accidents occurring in central enterprises and units with experience in super high-rise buildings is also significantly lower than that in non central enterprises and inexperienced units.Based on the empirical research results,the change sample size method and the replacement model method are used to test the robustness of the model.The results show that the analysis results are robustness.