| In this paper,the risk assessment and early warning of cruise glass curtain wall were carried out,and a comprehensive risk assessment method including the overall risk level assessment,risk source early warning and risk quantitative assessment was established.The reliability and applicability of the method were verified by example calculation.In this paper,a risk assessment method called “Best-Worst Method(BWM)group decision-making-failure mode and effect analysis(FMEA)” was constructed to assess the overall risk level of cruise glass curtain wall.BWM is a simple and efficient subjective weighting method.But BWM does not have a supporting weight determination method for decision makers.In order to realize the effective aggregation of BWM group decision evaluation results,a decision maker weighting method based on input data was proposed.So that BWM can be effectively applied to group decision process.And a risk assessment method based on BWM group decision weighting and FMEA can be constructed.Based on the analysis of the failure mode of the cruise glass curtain wall and the identification of the risk sources,this method was used to evaluate the overall risk level.And the effectiveness of the method was analyzed through example calculation and the order consistency.A risk early warning method called “two-dimensional cloud model-risk matrix”was constructed to determine the early warning level of potential risk source.In the process of risk matrix quantitative classification,the qualitative concept and its quantification process have fuzziness and randomness.Therefore,the two-dimensional cloud model was used to improve the risk matrix and obtained the two-dimensional cloud warning matrix.The FMEA evaluation results were transformed into twodimensional cloud model,and the comprehensive cloud was obtained by cloud model aggregation theory.The risk warning level was obtained by comparing the evaluation results with the two-dimensional cloud warning matrix.Using this method,the potential risk sources of cruise glass curtain wall were warned,the risk control measures were put forward,and the warning system software was developed.A risk quantitative evaluation method called “fault tree-Bayesian network” was constructed to calculate the failure probability and analyze the fault source after failure.Firstly,the failure fault tree of cruise glass curtain wall was constructed.Based on the risk matrix method improved by two-dimensional cloud model,the bottom event of the fault tree was evaluated and its occurrence probability was calculated.Then the fault tree was transformed into Bayesian network.And the failure probability of cruise glass curtain wall was calculated based on Bayesian network causal reasoning.Fault source investigation after failure was realized based on Bayesian network diagnostic reasoning. |
