Research On Urban Electricity Consumption Prediction Considering The Spatial Distribution Characteristics Of New Infrastructur

For urban power system,accurate load forecasting is the basis and premise of the whole planning work.In the future,with the support of the state,China’s new infrastructure construction will have a good foundation for development,and will promote the deep integration of the new generation of information technology and manufacturing,which will greatly promote the high-quality development of high-tech and equipment manufacturing-related industries.At the same time,the rapid development of new infrastructure will also lead to the rapid growth of urban electricity consumption and become a new driving force for the growth of industrial electricity consumption.Under this background,it is urgent to study and predict the pulling effect of new infrastructure on urban electricity consumption.Based on this,this article first analyzes and studies the energy consumption characteristics of new infrastructure,compares and analyzes the applicability,advantages and disadvantages of various electricity consumption prediction models,and establishes a bottom-up prediction model framework of urban electricity consumption considering typical new infrastructure.Secondly,a mixed model of GIS+MLR for predicting the market scale of new infrastructure is constructed to predict the market scale of typical new infrastructure for large cities.Finally,using the LEAP analysis tool,a bottom-up spatial aggregation simulation and prediction model of urban electricity consumption adapting to the electricity demand of new infrastructure is constructed.By setting different development scenarios and parameters,the urban electricity consumption considering typical new infrastructure is simulated,and the impact of new infrastructure electricity consumption on urban electricity consumption under different scenarios is analyzed.The simulation results of this study show that the typical new infrastructure has a great influence on urban electricity consumption.Under the influence of the future industrial policy and the change of industry environment,the development speed of new infrastructure may show a positive or declining trend.Therefore,under the scenario of high-speed development of new infrastructure and low-speed development of new infrastructure,the impact of new infrastructure on urban electricity consumption pattern is different.Improving the energy-saving level of the new infrastructure can significantly affect the impact of the new infrastructure on the total urban electricity consumption.