| The Yellow River is the mother river of the Chinese nation.The Yellow River Basin has bred splendid Chinese civilization.The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin have also risen to the national strategic planning.In the past 40 years of reform and development,great changes have taken place in the economic society and natural environment of the Yellow River Basin.The rapid urbanization process and major national ecological construction and protection projects(such as the project of returning farmland to forest and grassland)have had an important impact on the production and life of the people in the basin.Urban shrinkage has become an important issue in the current economic and social development of the Yellow River Basin.Identifying the process,characteristics and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in the basin can provide reference for scientific ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.This paper takes nine provinces,75 cities and 447 counties(districts)involved in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects.Based on the population data and economic and social data from 2000 to 2020,this paper selects the demographic,economic,social and comprehensive dimensions to construct the evaluation index system of urban shrinkage,and uses the urban shrinkage index to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban shrinkage at the county(district)level.On this basis,further research on urban shrinkage and its relationship at the city and city-county(district)scale is carried out by using the most obvious demographic indicators of urban shrinkage.Finally,the geographically weighted regression model is used to analyze the driving factors of urban shrinkage from 2010 to 2020.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Comprehensive dimensions(population,economic and social dimensions)and single dimension are used to evaluate the urban shrinkage at the county(district)level in the Yellow River Basin.On the comprehensive dimension,the overall characteristics of urban shrinkage from 2000 to 2020 are not obvious,and only seven cities have contracted.From the perspective of stages,the urban shrinkage in 2010-2020 is intense,with as many as 100 cities shrinking,which is mainly manifested in the shrinkage characteristics of population and social dimensions,concentrated in Shaanxi and Shanxi.In the single dimension,the number of shrinking cities in the population,economic and social dimensions of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was 203,7 and 21,respectively,of which 91,11 and 16 were concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu from 2000 to 2010;in 2010-2020,254,27 and 33,respectively,were concentrated in Shaanxi,Shanxi and Henan.The urban shrinkage in the county(district)level of the Yellow River Basin is concentrated in 2010-2020,and the population shrinkage characteristics are obvious.The urban shrinkage in space has shifted from west to east,from economically underdeveloped to economically developed regions.(2)Based on the results of county(district)analysis,population indicators are used to identify the city-county(district)urban contraction relationship in the Yellow River Basin.At the municipal level,the urban shrinkage characteristics are obvious from 2000 to 2020,with a total of 14 cities contracting.In phases,there were only 4 shrinking cities in 2000-2010 and 22 increasing cities in 2010-2020,concentrated in Guan Zhong plain and Central Plains.From the perspective of city-county(district)combination,the city-county(district)urban contraction relationship in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 is mainly in the same direction of city and county development.There are 106 and 171 cities in the city-county contraction and the city-county growth-county growth respectively,followed by 139 cities in the city-county contraction.Of these,29,286 and 107 in 2000-2020,respectively;in 2010-2020,174,131 and 107,respectively,were concentrated in Shaanxi,Shanxi and Gansu.The contraction of cities at the municipal level in the Yellow River Basin mainly occurred in 2010-2020,and the spatial development pattern was city-county(district)co-direction.The influence of municipal cities on county(district)urban development was obvious.(3)Due to the different levels of economic development among cities,the probability of contraction is also different.Among them,the proportion of population aging has the greatest impact on urban contraction,and has a negative effect on the development of all cities.The average correlation coefficient is-0.976,and the impact gradually weakens from west to east.Secondly,the added value of the secondary industry and household savings deposits have a positive effect on all cities,with the average values of 0.531 and 0.512,respectively.The degree of influence gradually increases from south to north.The urban shrinkage of the Yellow River Basin is mainly affected by population structure and economic industry.Among them,the probability of urban shrinkage in the southern and eastern regions with high economic development levels is significantly lower than that in the western and northern regions with backward economic levels. |
