| Water resource is the carrier of regional economy,society,environment and population capacity.The uneven space-time of water resource greatly restricts the development of China’s economy and society.The priority of water saving is the key to solve the problem of water resource shortage in the new period.The scale of colleges and universities in Hubei Province ranks the top in China,with huge water consumption and prominent leakage and unknown water quantity.During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,Hubei Province will actively carry out water-saving work in colleges and universities,and strive to build more than 35% of the colleges and universities in the Province into water-saving colleges and universities.In order to achieve this goal,it is necessary to strengthen the management system of water consumption quota.At present,it is of great significance for Hubei Province to realize the goal of water-saving construction in colleges and universities in the new period to revise and perfect the existing quota standards in time and strengthen the water management work such as the verification and evaluation of water-saving plan under the guidance of quota.In this paper,the data of total water consumption and water consumption in internal structures of 83 colleges and universities in Hubei Province from 2018 to2021 were collected.By analyzing the proportion of water consumption in each internal water structure,three main structures,namely student dormitory,teaching building and canteen,were selected.Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to select the influencing factors related to the water use of colleges and universities from the water use data and extract the principal components,and then combined with cluster analysis to classify the colleges and universities in Hubei Province into three categories: key undergraduate,general undergraduate and junior college.In order to improve the accuracy of estimating the overall sample statistics using small samples in the quota calculation process,this paper proposes an improved probability measure based on the bootstrap sampling method to calculate the water quota values for the university as a whole and for the main structures.The average error between the water consumption of each sample in 2021 calculated by the revised quota standard and the actual water consumption of colleges and universities is 12.95%,which is 48.7% lower than the current standard.Moreover,the revised standard supplements the quota value of the main water consumption structure of colleges and universities and strengthens the guiding role of water-saving management of universities.In view of the current blank in the management methods and procedures of water quota in colleges and universities in Hubei Province,this paper focuses on the two important links of quota management--water consumption plan verification and water-saving evaluation,in order to provide feasible guidance for the management of water quota in colleges and universities in Hubei Province.On the one hand,considering the scale of water consumption,water-saving potential and government control of colleges and universities in Hubei Province,and introducing water consumption regulation coefficient,incentive coefficient and penalty coefficient,the comprehensive verification model of college water consumption plan is established by combining quota method and historical water quantity method.The results show that the average error between the verified water consumption and the actual demand of colleges and universities is 4.91%,which can not only meet the basic water demand of colleges and universities,but also effectively restrain the daily water consumption of colleges and universities,and promote the construction of watersaving in colleges and universities.On the other hand,the existing index system is optimized from the three aspects of total water consumption control,water-saving technology and water consumption management.In order to reduce the influence of subjective assumptions or data errors on evaluation results,the combination weighting method of game is used to neutralize the deficiencies of subjective and objective weighting method and reduce the inconsistency of evaluation results.Then,according to the index system and index weight,the water-saving evaluation model of colleges and universities in Hubei Province is established.The results show that the evaluation score calculated by the model accords with the actual water-saving level of the sample colleges and universities,and can provide feasible schemes for watersaving reform of colleges and universities according to the status of the indicators. |
