| Along with the domestic economic growth slow and distribution of electricity price reform continuously thorough,the profit pattern of power grid gradually by the power purchase and sell electricity to earn price difference of extensive into allows costs and allow earnings mode of refinement,power grid investment ability is mainly composed of power transmission and distribution price,whose core indicators such as effective assets and to allow the cost of to decide.However previous power grid investment capacity evaluation methods are based on the power purchase and sell electricity to earn price difference from to create the index model and method of management,ignoring the uncertainty of various internal and external risks,by which the grid development facing,and did not consider to renewable energy as the main body of the new development of electric power system of power transmission and distribution costs.Therefore,the research of power grid investment risk modeling and investment capacity evaluation method considering transmission and distribution cost supervision provides strong support for new power system investment focus and investment structure optimization.The study of this research is outlined follows:Firstly,a model of power grid maximum investment capacity evaluation considering transmission and distribution cost supervision is proposed.Starting from the three aspects of power grid retained profits,fixed assets depreciation and new liabilities,considering the restriction effect of asset-liability ratio,self-owned funds and balance account profit and loss on power grid enterprises’ investment capacity,the development planning and financial budget parameters are taken as boundary conditions to form the optimization model of maximum investment capacity.And through the single factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis to sort out the leading index factors that affect the power grid investment capacity evaluation under the transmission and distribution price model and their influence law.The effectiveness of the proposed investment capacity evaluation model is verified by comparative analysis of provincial power grid.Secondly,an investment risk modeling and investment capability evaluation method considering the uncertainty of power grid development is proposed.Based on intercept transform such as radar map key risk identification model for grid development faced by policy,economy and development form,which can identify risk form the grid index system for the development of potential risks,and extract the key uncertainty of power grid investment capacity as new,effective,and the total quantity sold assets,using bayesian theory of key uncertainty interval estimate the boundary,an interval estimation model of investment capacity based on time sequence risk of power grid development is constructed.Through the sensitivity analysis of practical examples,the dominant uncertainty and its influencing rules are obtained,which verifies the universality and effectiveness of the proposed investment capacity assessment model.Finally,a medium and long-term power grid investment capacity evaluation method for high proportion of renewable energy access is proposed.Reveal the size of the renewable energy access to energy storage capacity cost,sharing cost of transmission and distribution,and the influence of power transmission and distribution costs,such as special service engineering mechanism,set up to consider renewable energy grid access scale uncertainty distribution electricity price interval boundary estimation model,constructed considering renewable energy access to long-term impact on the cost of transmission and distribution of power grid investment capacity interval evaluation model,the boundary target and constraint interval of maximum investment capacity corresponding to outer layer optimization variable and inner layer uncertain quantity are solved by double-layer nested optimization method.Numerical examples show that the proposed method has smaller radius of investment capacity and higher evaluation accuracy compared with the existing methods.In summary,this paper proposes the consideration of cost of transmission and distribution whose grid investment ability evaluation model,considering the uncertainty of power grid development investment risk modeling and competency assessment methods,and to adapt to the high proportion of renewable energy grid access to longterm investment ability evaluation method,for the different scenarios of grid investment ability evaluation provides a new train of thought. |
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