Dynamic Analysis Of Investment Decision Of Wind Storage Integrated Power Station

Of fossil energy consumption to promote the high speed development of economy and the rapid progress of human society,but it has brought many ecological environment problems which cannot be ignored,the excess and the mining damage fossil energy geological hydrology,the burning of fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases but also to the ecological environment and people’s health has a great harm.High current China’s carbon emissions,became a carbon emission reduction task to the most difficult countries around the world,as the concept of human destiny community participant,General Secretary Xi Jinping at the United Nations general assembly general debate of the seventy-fifth session of climate speech on behalf of the Chinese solemn promise "30,60 pairs of carbon targets",and green low carbon energy structure in China is bound to speed up the process of transformation,The power industry,which is still dominated by coal-fired power generation,will undoubtedly become a key industry in emission reduction.The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have successively issued a number of policies to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the power supply structure,striving to achieve about 25%of the consumption of non-fossil energy by 2030,and the total installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation to reach over 1.2 billion k W,pointing out the strategic direction of China’s energy transformation and reform.In the process of power structure transformation,energy storage will play an irreplaceable key role,and the state strongly supports the development of new energy storage.In the transition stage of energy storage technology from demonstration stage to large-scale application,various investors turn their attention to the investment of integrated wind storage power station.However,the investment decision of integrated wind storage power station is faced with many uncertainties,and the internal economic value evaluation of such projects is widely concerned.Under the above background,this paper studies related issues of investment decision of integrated wind storage power station in a relatively complete way,carries out dynamic analysis of construction and operation in its whole life cycle,and considers the changes of project intrinsic value under the influence of future uncertainty.First of all,through combing the relevant researches on wind power and energy storage in the aspects of technology application,cost composition,benefit analysis and so on,it is determined that the focus of this paper is on the investment decision of the overall project of wind farm energy storage configuration.Through the relevant research on the application of investment decision theory and investment decision method,the traditional project net present value combined with real option B-S model pricing method is determined,and the system dynamics is used to evaluate the economic value of the project.Secondly,the paper briefly summarizes the current investment decisions of integrated wind storage power stations,such as high cost,difficult revenue accounting,and uncertain policy support and durability,analyzes the relevant policies of energy storage technology development in China in recent three years,and concludes the necessity of dynamic analysis of investment decisions of integrated wind storage power stations.On the basis of detailed analysis of factors influencing the wind to store the core of the integration of power plant investment decision,including construction cost,operation cost,sell electricity,carbon trading revenue,VAT tax breaks and cash flow,etc.,especially change the problem of energy storage systems are analyzed in detail and the green electricity market transaction way and parity,the influence of the policy to sell electricity income online.Based on the foregoing analysis,screening has the research value,the influence factors of dynamic changes of storage integration into the wind power plant investment decision model,on the basis of mapping the causal feedback to establish simulation model of science,to join the wind store the investment value of real options perspective integrated power station peace must change KWH cost calculation model as auxiliary index.Finally,select a representative sample of a particular configuration of Inner Mongolia energy storage model of wind power projects for the application,on the basis of the model validity to simulate the wind integrated storage power station possible uncertainties in the future as well as a variety of uncertainty affect the investment value,after storage integration for the wind power plant investment decision of targeted recommendations.