Scenario Simulation Study On Residential Quality Distribution Based On Multi-party Interest

The simulation and prediction of future urban pattern can help urban planners to make scientific and effective decisions.The ultimate purpose of urban construction is to improve the quality of people’s life.Therefore,how to improve the quality of urban housing as much as possible under the limited resources and rationally plan the distribution of different quality housing in the city is complicated and worthy of further study.In this paper,guanxian county of Shandong Province,a typical area of rapid urbanization in the inland of Shandong Province,China,is selected as the research area.The cellular automata and multi-agent model and other related methods in land use prediction are fully used to build a multi-stakeholder housing quality distribution model and analyze the future urban development pattern under different scenarios.The housing quality distribution model based on multiple interests can be divided into two parts: the first part is the urban expansion module based on cellular automata,which is used to predict the future functional pattern of the city and is the basis of the whole model.In the process of building this module,through the analysis of the urban functional land use in the study area from 2000 to 2010,using the cellular automata system framework principle,the urban land use layout in 2020 is simulated.The actual land use in 2020 is compared with the simulated land use and the simulation accuracy is tested.After verification,the cellular automata system framework is used to analyze the functional distribution pattern of urban development in 2030 and provide data basis for the subsequent multi-agent model.The second part is the housing quality distribution module based on the multi-agent model.Based on the future functional pattern of the city,the module takes the multi-interests of the government,developers and residents as constraints into the model building process to predict the distribution of the housing quality of the whole city.Considering the impacts of land use change and spatial distribution of human activities,based on the functional distribution pattern of urban development in 2030,a housing quality model based on multiple interests is constructed,and a simulation and prediction model of urban expansion is built by combining urban spatial pattern and human activities.The cellular automata model combined with the multiagent model,to simulate the pattern of future urban function,and to include scenario analysis method in this study,discuss the free development mode,the government macroeconomic regulation and control,improve the quality of the residents of the weight of the three scenarios,future urban residential quality distribution pattern changes,thus making scientific guidance for urban planning.It can be seen from the experimental results that proper government intervention in the market can be beneficial to the healthy development of the real estate market,but the interests of all parties should be well integrated.The guidance of residents’ proper quality awareness can also help the city managers to better implement the quality housing policy.In this paper,the land use prediction method is used as a research tool,and the change of land use and urban function pattern under different policies and scenarios is analyzed through scenario analysis method,so as to realize the organic combination of simulation,prediction and scenario analysis.The results of this study will provide new ideas and tools for studying the spatialtemporal evolution of urbanization and its effects.