Research On Sale Forecast And Development Path Of China’s New Energy Vehicles

In recent years,energy shortages and environmental problems have become increasingly serious,and the development of new energy vehicles has become a breakthrough.China’s new energy vehicles are developing rapidly.By the end of 2021,China’s new energy vehicle market has entered a new stage of explosive growth,with significant growth in the proportion of private consumption and market share.In order to effectively coordinate the development scale,speed,and the relationship between the relevant factors of new energy vehicles,the government constantly issues the development plan for new energy vehicles.However,as an emerging industry,new energy vehicles are still in the stage of rapid development.Therefore,studying the actual development of newenergy vehicles in our country is significant for the formulation of strategic planning of our country.Therefore,studying the actual development of new-energy vehicles in our country is significant for the formulation of strategic planning for our country.The purpose of this paper is to predict the future of China’s new energy vehicle sales,and on that basis,to study the optimal path and the sensitivity analysis of the various influencing factors.The main work is summarized as follows:1.In terms of new energy vehicle sales forecast,this paper fits the sales volume of Chinese new energy vehicles from 2011 to 2021 basing on the Bass model and the generalized Bass model.LM algorithm was used to estimate unknown parameters in the model,and it was found that the generalized Bass model had a better fitting effect than the Bass model.This model can reflect the development trend of new energy vehicles in China and is suitable for the diffusion analysis of new energy vehicles in China.Therefore,the generalized Bass model is selected to forecast the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2022 to 2035.The results of the generalized Bass model show that new energy vehicles will be affected by external shocks,which also occur from 2013 to 2015,and the impact is negative.The causes of the impact are analyzed.2.This paper aims to analyze the optimal development path of China’s new-energy vehicle sales from 2022 to 2035,and takes the forecasted sales in 2035 predicted from the previous research serving as the target.To achieve this,the paper proposes a discrete time optimal control model with nonlinear constraints,based on the development process of new energy vehicles.Wherein,the control variable is the new sales volume of new energy vehicles to be optimized,and the objective function is the minimization of the total cost function.The total cost function considers energy,economic and environmental benefits at the same time,introduces nonlinear constraints from the aspects of the economy,carbon emissions,charging infrastructure and so on,and gives the boundary constraints of the control variables.Then,a gradient-based optimization algorithm was constructed to solve the optimal control model,and the optimal development path of China’s new energy vehicles from 2022 to 2035 was obtained.The results show that the discrete time optimal control model constructed in this paper is reasonable and the objectives set up in the model can be realized.Then,the grey correlation analysis method was used to screen out the three influencing factors with the highest correlation coefficient with sales volume,which were respectively technological innovation,carbon trading price and the number of charging piles.The sensitivity analysis of the three influencing factors is further carried out,and the results show that improving the level of technological innovation,the rise of carbon trading price and the increase of the number of charging piles will achieve the development goal of new energy vehicle sales faster and at a lower cost.