Research On The Development Strategy Of China’s New Energy Vehicles Based On Generalized Bass Model

Due to the air and energy problems caused by traditional cars,many countries have turned to new energy vehicles(NEV)since this century.China has become the leader in the field of NEV.By 2017,China has ranked first in NEV production and sales in the world for three years.However,in the process of analyzing different regions and different time periods,it is found that the sales volume of NEV is not stable,and the variations in different regions and different periods are different.This research aims to study the factors that affect the development of NEV and assess the impact of policies so as to provide a certain reference for policy making departments.In this study,Generalized Bass Model is mainly used to analyze the sales volume of NEV in seven provinces.The influential factors are mainly the industry-related policies issued by the central and local governments,including subsidy policies,charging infrastructure construction policies and policies to reduce the purchase and operation restrictions of NEV.Firstly,it explores whether the number of potential consumers should be preset.After that,the NEV sales data of each province were analyzed separately to get the time point of the impact and to find the biggest factors affecting the development of NEV in that province.Finally,combined with the characteristics of each province,it analyzes why their influencing factors and predicts the sales volume of NEV in each province in the future.The results are as follows.Firstly,a reasonable market capacity should be assumed when Generalized Bass Model is used to discuss the developing industries.Secondly,for provinces with high economic level and many restrictions on traditional cars,such as Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin,reducing policy restrictions on NEV will have a better promotion effect.For provinces with high economic level and vast territory like Guangdong and Shandong,the improvement of infrastructure construction is more effective for the promotion of NEV.Purchase subsidies are indeed the most effective means for provinces and cities with average economic level,such as Hebei and Jiangxi.Finally,an assessment for the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in each province found that the sales in each province would peak before 2030.