Research On Risk Index Of Shipping Delay Based On AIS Data

The novel coronavirus pneumonia has been a heavy blow in recent years,and the shipping industry is facing a lot of problems,such as shrinking business,oversupply,and backlog of goods.Among them,the problem of liner delay is particularly prominent.The problem of shipping delay is related to the transportation quality of shipping companies.The research on the risk index of shipping delay is of great help to the recovery of shipping economy.Nowadays,in the event of ship delay,the shipowner’s P & I association provides protection for its members,but its members are under the annual fee system,and there is no single voyage delay insurance product.The research on the risk index of ship delay can not only help shipping participants understand the performance of ship delay in the past,but also provide data basis for its practical application,such as the premium approval of ship delay insurance.The risk index also provides a reference value for the future voyage delay prediction,which is conducive to the healthy development of the shipping industry.With the development of AIS system,it is possible to obtain the information of liner ocean voyage,and the research related to voyage data mining emerges one after another,which provides a rich foundation for the study of risk index of shipping delay.The main work of this paper is as follows Based on a large number of AIS historical data,the original data is preprocessed to obtain clean and usable data;The berthing history of the liner is obtained by using the ship berthing history cutting algorithm,and the segments of the liner voyage are separated;Using the clustering algorithm based on the similarity of ship navigation region,the delay performance of different typical route groups in the region is obtained;Finally,through the calculation algorithm of the risk index of shipping delay,the overall risk index of shipping delay in the region is obtained.This paper also designs the insurance premium calculation model based on the delay risk index,and studies the practical application of the index.Finally,based on the AIS data of the liner on the asia-u.s.west route,the risk index of shipping delay is calculated by the algorithm of ship berthing history cutting and the algorithm of shipping delay risk index.In addition,two groups of different delay risk indexes are selected to calculate the premium rate of delay insurance,which verifies the availability of the delay risk index model and the premium calculation model of delay insurance.The results show that the risk index of ship delay can reflect the change and trend of ship delay to a certain extent.The emergence of the risk index of shipping delay brings more reference data for the shipping industry,helps to improve the feasibility of shipping service quality supervision,and has a wide range of application value.