Generation Of Route Guidance Information In Urban Rail Transit Network Under Station Closure

With the increasing passenger flow of urban rail transit,short-term station closure events are becoming more and more common,which deepens the imbalance of passenger flow in time and space,aggravates congestion,and reduces safty.Under the condition of short-term station closure,except optimizing capacity supply,passenger flow guidance from the demand side has become a common passenger flow organization means for operators,which also provides an important basis for passengers to plan routes.However,there are some problems in the current passenger flow guidance under station closure,such as no differential guidance for all passengers,and the perception of passengers on the guidance information is not considered.Therefore,research on the generation of guidance information under the condition of urban rail transit station closure is urgently needed.This paper carries out research from three aspects: spatio-temporal guidance range under station closure,route choice behavior modeling influenced by guidance information under station closure and the generation of passenger route guidance information.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)A spatio-temporal guidance range identification method of passenger flow guidance under station closure is proposed.Facing the anomalies in the number and trend of passenger flow time series under station closure,SAX-DTW method(Symbolic Aggregate appro Ximation,SAX;Dynamic Time Warping,DTW)is proposed to comprehensively measure the anomalies of outbound time series to identify the spatio-temporal influence range of station closure events,and then determine the generation range and passengers of guidance information under station closure.Taking the historical station closure of Guangzhou Metro as an example,the effectiveness of the method is analyzed and compared with SAX and LOF-Grabus-KNN hybrid clustering algorithm.The proposed method accurately identifies the abnormal points that can not be identified by the existing methods,shows better identification effect with better accuracy.(2)A travel route choice model considering the perception of guidance information as well as the fuzziness of passengers’ decision is established,and the passengers’ travel route choice behavior under the effect of guidance information is described.Firstly,the effects of attribute factors and induced information perception on passengers’ travel path choice behavior are analyzed;secondly,a measurement method of guidance information content and form perception based on information entropy,conditional entropy and relative entropy is proposed to calculate the guidance information perception coefficient,and then an improved Multinomial Logit Model(MNL)of route choice is established based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Theory(IF);Thirdly,APP is taken as the platform to design and carry out the research on the route choice behavior of passengers affected by guidance information under station closure,and calibrate the model parameters for passengers with different travel purposes respectively;Finally,compared with the MNL model without considering information or intuitionistic fuzzy,the results show that the proposed model has better goodness of fit and more accurately describes the route choice behavior of passengers.(3)The generation method of route guidance information for passengers with different travel purposes under station closure is proposed.Based on the above-mentioned route choice behavior model,the passenger flow distribution of the network is assigned,and the information generation model with the goal of minimizing the distribution entropy of loading rate and considering different forms of guidance information is established,so as to generate personalized guidance information for passengers with different travel purposes.Taking the historical station closure event of Guangzhou Metro as an example,compared with the original road network without guidance information,the D-value of the distribution entropy of loading rate on the day with station closure and the normal day is reduced by 43% ～ 71%,which shows that the proposed model can effectively alleviate the problem of unbalanced distribution of road network passenger flow caused by short-term station closure and improve the operation safety.Figures: 27,Tables: 25,References: 103.