Research On Demand Prediction Of High-speed Rail Express

With the expansion of high-speed railway network,continuous improvement of infrastructure construction and increasing demand for express transportation,high-speed railway express has gradually emerged with its advantages of fast speed,high punctuality,large volume,good safety and low energy consumption.Although the railway sector has released a strong capacity in the field of passenger transport business,but the profitability of some lines is still not optimistic,the need to develop new transport business as a profit growth point.Therefore,the demand analysis of high-speed railway express can provide a new opportunity for the development of the railway sector,and help to reverse the traditional development situation of high-speed railway,which is dominated by passenger transport,so as to give full play to idle capacity and transport potential of railway and maximize the benefits of railway sector at the same time.It also helps to provide reasonable planning for the infrastructure construction of railway transport enterprises and serve the supply-side reform of high-speed railway.Based on the demand perspective,this study adopts the method of first total volume and then distribution to predict the Beijing-Shanghai OD volume of high-speed railway.Firstly,the combined prediction method of exponential smoothing method+ARIMA model +LSTM neural network + multiple linear regression is adopted to predict the total amount of express business in Beijing.Secondly,six aspects of safety,economy,rapidity,punctuality,service and environmental protection are selected as the influencing factors for express delivery companies to choose the mode of transportation.Logit sharing rate model is constructed to solve the sharing rate of four modes of transportation between Beijing and Shanghai.Finally,8 index data related to express business development are selected,and the comprehensive score of express business in each region is obtained based on principal component analysis method.The model of OD attraction intensity to express delivery is constructed to solve the Beijing-Shanghai OD attraction intensity to express delivery,and the demand for high-speed rail express in Beijing-Shanghai urban distribution is predicted.The research results of demand prediction of high-speed rail express for urban distribution from Beijing-Shanghai are as follows.Firstly,the combination prediction model is used to predict that June,November and December are the peak seasons for the demand of long-distance express services in Beijing and Shanghai according to the proportion of long-distance express services.Secondly,the Logit model is used to solve the sharing rates of road transportation,air transportation,traditional railway transportation and high-speed rail express transportation between Beijing-Shanghai are40.87%,21.23%,21.22% and 16.68% respectively,and then the monthly high-speed rail freight volume forecast value of Beijing and Shanghai in 2023 is obtained.Thirdly,the model of OD attraction intensity to express delivery is used to obtain that the attraction intensity of Beijing-Shanghai and Shanghai-Beijing express delivery is 3.78%and 2.48% respectively,and the demand of Beijing-Shanghai OD to high-speed rail express is finally predicted.The research on demand prediction of high-speed railway express is conducive to providing basis for the formulation of freight transportation plans of railway departments,rational utilization of resources such as lines,and promoting economic development.