Research On The Share Rate Of Highway Passenger Traffic And Development Strategy Influenced By The High Speed Railway

Highway passenger transport has the advantages of flexibility， multinodes， longlines， wide coverage in China. So it has held the dominant position in comprehensivetransportation system for a long time.But along with the rapid growth of the economy andpeople living standard rise ceaselessly， People’s travel demands are becoming more andmore diverse，and the requirements of convenience， safety， rapidity and comfort are alsobecoming more and more high. Besides， highway passenger transport has defects inenergy consumption， capacity and environmental protection.These aspects result in thefeatures of highway passenger transport no longer have obvious advantages in competition.At the same time， the development of the high speed railway with the characteristics ofrapidity， safety， comfort， and environmental protection makes quite part of thepassenger flow turn to the rail way，and the passenger flow share rate and market share ofhighway passenger drop year by year. It has had a huge impact and influence on thehighway passenger transport enterprises. Therefore， in this situation， it has already beenan urgent important issue that highway passenger enterprises how to adapt to marketchanges and enhance their comprehensive strength and explore new profit growth point.This paper mainly takes highway transportation and high speed railway of theinter-city traffic as the research objects. Starting from the two modes of transportationsituation of their development， this paper first expounds the merits and demerits of thetwo transportation modes and existing problems， and then analysis the challenge andopportunity with the development of high speed railway to highway passenger transport，and then discusses the future trend of development of highway passenger transport underhighway and railway game. And then based on the investigation and statistics results of thepassenger travel features of Chang Chun to Ji Lin channel，it analyses the influencefactors of the passenger travel choice way from the perspective of transportation supplycharacteristics， travelers’ characteristics， travel characteristics and the macroenvironment. According to the passenger travel and transportation supply characteristics，this paper chooses the commonly used division Logit model as the basic model， andimproves the basic model by introducing passenger revenue variables and extract the safetyand environment friendly characteristics index from the service characteristics. Then thispaper introduces two typical methods of solving models which are the maximum likelihoodestimation method and the possible satisfaction method. And improve the possible satisfaction method according to its defect that it usually doesn’t consider the weightbetween the parallel factors.This action overcomes the limitations that the influencefactors are only simply linear combined which to some extent expand the scope ofapplication of the model. At last， the paper takes Chang Chun to Ji Lin channel for anexample， based on the statistics data of the passenger travel features，it analyses thepassenger travel behaviour and the market shares of high speed railway and highway， andusing the improved model and the solving method to calculate the passenger flow sharerate of the highway and high speed railway，and comparing with the actual survey of thepassenger flow share rate. Then this paper does the sensitivity analysis to the ticket price orthe waiting time factors which can result in the passenger flow and the share rate changingso as to verify the applicability of the improved model and method.Finally， this paper using the SWOT analysis method to analyze the futuredevelopment and strategic orientation of highway passenger enterprises. It argues thathighway passenger transport and high-speed railway is competitive and coordinatedrelations. And then from six major aspects such as product development， marketdevelopment， market penetration， transverse joint， internal league and cooperate withthe traffic organization，etc to expound how the highway passenger enterprises to buildthe advantage status of the specific application of the strategy.