A Study Of Urban Residents’ Travel Option During The Resumption Of Work And Production In The COVID-19 Epidemic

The occurrence of COVID-19 as a public health emergency in the world has been the third year.The influence of COVID-19 has penetrated into every corner of the world,affecting all aspects of our lives,and also changes the city traffic.Currently,there are many researches on the mode of travel,but there is still less research on the behavior of traffic resumption under the COVID-19.It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of travel mode selection at this stage and the changes of residents’ preference for travel mode before and after the COVID-19.This paper takes the travel mode selection during the return to work and production period as the main research object.Through the investigation of the travel mode of Beijing residents in April 2020,this paper selects gender,age,family car ownership,occupation and the travel mode selection before the epidemic as the main reference factors,uses R language data visualization tool to draw spine chart,sangchi chart and violin chart to visualize the data,and carries out descriptive statistical analysis at the same time,And draw the correlation diagram to analyze the correlation between variables;Multinomial logit model(MNL)and nested logit model(NL)were used for modeling and analysis;Using AIC,BIC and other indicators to judge the effect of the model,it is finally found that the fitting effect of NL model is slightly better than MNL model;In the study of the impact of pre epidemic travel mode on post epidemic travel mode,this paper selects the relationship between the second choice of pre epidemic travel mode and the choice of travel mode in the resumption period,and uses binomial logit(BLM)model for analysis;In studying the change of disease risk caused by the change of transportation mode,this paper uses MNL model to analyze the relationship between the change of risk caused by the change of travel mode and relevant influencing factors.The study found that more than half of the residents’ choice of travel mode remained unchanged from that before the epidemic,but the number of residents who chose public transportation decreased significantly,and the choice of travel mode was changed to walking,cycling,driving private cars and taxis.During the resumption of work and production,male,residents aged 30-40,civil servants,employees of enterprises and institutions Families with more cars are more likely to drive private cars;Women are more likely to take taxis in longdistance travel;At this stage,retirees and students still reduce travel,mostly short-distance travel,in the form of walking;The tendency of individual industrial and commercial service industry to choose travel mode is not obvious;When the second choice of travel mode before the epidemic is bicycle and taxi,residents are more inclined to use these two travel modes as the main travel mode during the resumption of work and childbirth;Residents over the age of30 have a more obvious perception of travel risk and are more inclined to adopt lower risk travel modes.Finally,based on these research findings and the previous literature research,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the traffic management policies during the resumption of work and other connection periods.