Research On Product Design Of Inter-node High Speed Rail Freight Based On Demand Forecast

In recent years,the national economy has entered a new normal of development,and supply-side structural reform has entered a new stage.With the popularization of the Internet,the e-commerce industry has also developed rapidly.As a result,the transportation demand for light,small,high value-added goods is growing rapidly.In the meantime,the main framework of the high-speed railway has been completed in China,and the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed railway network is also under construction.The network of high-speed rail is gradually taking shape,bringing increasingly obvious network benefits.The transportation capacity of high-speed railways will be greatly improved,and the freight capacity will also be greatly expanded.Based on this,it is imperative for the railway department to develop high-speed rail freight businesses,and it is particularly important to rationally design high-speed rail freight products between different urban nodes.From the perspective of economic and environment benefits,this article analyzes and forecasts the demand for high-speed rail freight between urban nodes,and designs corresponding freight products.Finally,using the high-speed railway network in Shandong province as a practical case to analyze.It will be expanded from the following aspects:(1)Analyze and summarize the development status of China high-speed rail freight products.Explain the background of China high-speed rail freight market and main source of goods.Summarize the content,organizational process and mode of existing high-speed rail freight products.Based on this,perform a SWOT analysis of high-speed rail freight products,and discuss the development status and problems.(2)Construct a high-speed rail freight demand forecast model.Considering the characteristics and influencing factors of high-speed rail freight demand forecasting,design a combined forecasting method.Combine the improved Logit sharing rate model and the OD demand distribution prediction model to form a systematic forecasting idea.Finally,construct a high-speed rail freight demand forecast model between urban nodes.(3)High-speed rail freight product design.Based on the forecast of high-speed rail freight demand,with the goal of maximizing the revenue of railway department and minimize carbon emissions,the high-speed rail freight product design is carried out based on factors such as freight demand,section passing capacity,transportation time limitation,train load limitation,and passenger train influence.(4)Take the Shandong high-speed rail freight network as an example for analysis.1)Clarify the main high-speed rail transportation channels connecting Shandong Province to other provinces and elect the provinces on the transport channels that may meet the freight demand in Shandong Province.Select the main logistics distribution cities in each transport channel in and outside the province.2)According to the demand forecast model,forecast the demand for goods outside Shandong Province.Obtain the forecast of high-speed rail freight demand at a certain time in the future.3)Design the high-speed rail freight products between the nodes outside the province and the nodes in Shandong Province on each transportation channel.Determine the mode and number of high-speed rail freight operation.Provide reference and suggestions for the development of high-speed rail freight in these regions.