River Risk Assessment Research For Ships Sailing From Guangyuan To The Mouth Of The Jialing River

With the country’s proposal to promote the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in an all-round way,Sichuan Province’s "one trunk and six branches" and Chongqing’s "one trunk and two branches" tree-like channel system construction,the Jialing River shipping safety has also attracted people’s attention.At present,the section from Guangyuan to Hekou of the Jialing River is in the initial stage of navigating the whole line,and there is no comprehensive and systematic research on the safety risk of ship navigation,which makes it impossible to take directional risk control measures.At the same time,the economic belt along the Jialing River is developing continuously,and the shipping potential along the line is constantly being tapped.The increase in ship traffic will make these problems more prominent,thus hindering the rapid development of shipping on the Jialing River.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the safety risks of ships in the section from Guangyuan to the estuary of the Jialing River,find out the risk sources,put forward directional risk management and control measures,and reduce the navigation risks of ships.This paper takes the section from Guangyuan to the estuary of the Jialing River as the research object,with reference to a large number of previous literature on the risk of ship navigation,based on the analysis of the current situation of the safety risk of ship navigation in this section,based on four factors: human factors,ship factors,environmental factors and management factors.The risk factors of the river reach are analyzed and studied in each dimension.Through expert questionnaires combined with reliability test and index selection based on the Pearson correlation coefficient,the Jialing River ship navigation risk index system is established,and the basic event nodes of the Bayesian network are determined.According to the steps of establishing a Bayesian network model,when determining the Bayesian network structure,a fault tree-based model is established,and the Bayesian structure is determined by relying on the mapping relationship between the fault tree and Bayesian;when determining the Bayesian network parameters,Set up the survey questionnaire,calculate the weight of the questionnaire for senior practitioners in the industry,introduce the fuzzy set theory to aggregate the questionnaire results,and determine the prior probability of the node and the prior probability of the node,thus completing the establishment of the Bayesian network based on Ge Nle software.Through the forward reasoning function of the Ge Nle software,the overall probability of the risk of the studied river section is obtained,the risk factors affecting the navigation safety of the ship are obtained through the diagnosis and reasoning,and the key risk factors affecting the navigation safety of the ship are excavated through the sensitivity.After comprehensive analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: in the first-level indicators of the symptom layer,human factors have the highest impact on the risk of ship navigation safety;in the second-level nodes of the symptom layer,the professional quality of the crew has the highest impact on the navigation risk of ships on the Jialing River;in the fault layer,the factors that have a greater impact on the risk of ship navigation safety are the rich water depth of the channel,the curvature of the channel,the width of the channel,the ship’s maneuvering,navigation aids,cargo overload,emergency capability,ship equipment self-inspection,emergency code execution,and emergency system improvement.level and management of navigable buildings.Therefore,it is necessary to put forward targeted risk management and control measures based on these factors and the current situation of navigation safety risks to reduce the navigation safety risks of ships in the research river section,and also provide reference suggestions for government decision-making.