Research On Energy Consumption Prediction Of Urban Residential Buildings In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In recent years,the scale of buildings in my country has developed rapidly.By2020,the total energy consumption of the construction industry has reached 94.62 million tons of standard coal,and the energy consumption of urban residents’ buildings is determined from three aspects: energy consumption ratio,building area and total carbon emissions.Seems to be the highest.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a city of coordinated development.The energy consumption of urban residents’ buildings remains high,and the regulation of energy consumption should be accelerated.The trend forecast and regulation of relevant macro factors can reduce this energy consumption,so as to achieve comprehensive energy conservation,emission reduction,and reduction of energy consumption in my country.make a real contribution to carbon emissions.This paper introduces the research status at home and abroad in related fields,and then based on the relevant data of the China Energy Statistical Yearbook from2002 to 2020,through systematic sorting and analysis,it is found that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the regions with the highest energy consumption intensity and the most serious air pollution in my country.Based on literature research,the random forest algorithm is applied to the primary selection and optimization of the energy consumption impact indicators of urban residential buildings under the principles of systematic,typical and dynamic.Based on the expansion of the STIRPAT model,a ridge regression analysis was carried out considering five factors: the total permanent population,the per capita consumption level of urban residents,the added value of the tertiary industry,the urban heating area,and the production energy consumption value of 10,000 yuan.The energy consumption prediction model of residential buildings in the Tianjin-Hebei region,and the scientificity and stability of the model are verified with actual data,which improves the comparative application of the STIRPAT model at the provincial and municipal levels.Two different development scenarios were set up by scenario analysis method,and then the energy consumption of urban residential buildings in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei three regions from 2020 to 2030 was predicted and analyzed based on the different development scenarios.The study found that:(1)In the past 20 years,the energy consumption of urban residential buildings in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has continued to rise.Hebei Province has the largest energy consumption of urban residential buildings among the three cities,and Tianjin has the smallest energy consumption value.(2)In addition to the resident population factor,the most important impact index in Beijing is the heating area;the most important index in Tianjin and Hebei Province is the production energy consumption value of 10,000 yuan area.Although the rankings of other factors are different,the three regions reflect the regional commonality and energy consumption similarity of neighboring provinces and cities.(3)In the future,the energy consumption of residential buildings in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will continue to increase under the two development scenarios,and the energy consumption value will even double.It is necessary to further improve the resource utilization efficiency of my country’s building sector and reduce its pollution.emissions.At the end of the paper,a summary of the research and an analysis of research deficiencies are made,and effective and feasible specific suggestions for relevant policies are put forward,as well as research prospects.