Asset Value Evaluation Of REITs

Public offering REITs for infrastructure is an internationally accepted asset allocation with high liquidity and relatively stable income.It can effectively revitalize stock assets,fill the gap of current financial products,broaden social capital investment channels,increase the proportion of direct financing,and enhance the quality and efficiency of capital market services to the real economy.Infrastructure public REITs focuses on infrastructure projects,mainly including warehousing and logistics,transportation facilities such as toll roads,airports and ports,municipal facilities such as water,electricity and heat,pollution control,information networks,industrial parks and other infrastructure.Toll roads account for a considerable proportion.Two of the nine public REITs that have been listed are toll roads,and two of the four infrastructure projects accepted at present are also toll roads.It can be seen that the value evaluation of toll roads is very important for public REITs with toll roads as the underlying project assets.The research on the value evaluation of toll roads is roughly divided into three categories: one is about what evaluation method is used for toll roads,one is about how the various parameters involved in the evaluation of toll roads by income method are qualitative and quantitative,and the last is about the traffic volume prediction of toll roads themselves.This thesis focuses on the prediction of toll road traffic volume,and uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the traffic volume,and then predict the toll road toll.Because there is more than one model on the expressway,and different models not only have different performance in the future growth trend,but also have great differences in charging,this thesis makes classified prediction for different models and calculates the income standard by classification,so as to make the prediction more reasonable.Moreover,there are many assumptions about the operation of the project highway,so it is necessary to modify the income according to the assumptions after completing the preliminary income calculation.And the assumptions themselves are divided into two categories.One kind of assumptions affects the predicted income by affecting the traffic volume,and the other kind of assumptions will not affect the traffic volume,but have an impact on the income.Therefore,this thesis modifies the income according to different impact methods of the assumptions.In order to improve the prediction accuracy,Monte Carlo simulation method is also used in this thesis.Based on the predicted traffic volume,the correction of weather factors is introduced.Considering that the area where the project highway is located involves two geographical regions,this thesis makes statistics on the historical weather distribution of the two geographical regions in the past 10 years.On this basis,various types of weather factors are identified as six categories of weather factors.Two weather types have no impact on traffic volume,and the remaining four weather types have impact on traffic volume,and the degree of impact is different.Finally,according to the impact of different weather types on traffic volume,the toll income under various conditions is calculated in different regions,so as to correct the income.The Monte Carlo simulation method used in the traffic volume prediction in this thesis can be used as another idea for the public REITs of toll road infrastructure to predict the traffic volume,and the introduction of weather factors can also be used as another consideration factor for the value evaluation of toll road in the future,On this basis,we hope to provide new ideas and methods for the relevant appraisal practice of the underlying assets of toll road infrastructure public offering REITs project.