Value Evaluation Of New Energy Vehicle Enterprises Based On Fuzzy Real Option

Nowadays,with the vigorous development of China economy and the rapid rise of new energy technology industry,China has also issued a series of positive policies to support the development of this industry.Under this background,the new energy technology industry has gradually become an important supporting force of the national economy,and the rapid development of this industry has also become the focus of investors’ attention.At present,the development time of new energy vehicles is still short,the future growth space is still large,and it is obviously influenced by policies.These factors together lead to greater uncertainty in the development of new energy vehicles,so investors are also facing more risks.Therefore,the potential option value in new energy automobile enterprises has become an important consideration in evaluating enterprise value.Usually,it is necessary to obtain a fixed value of parameters when using real option model,but it is difficult to obtain accurate parameters through subjective evaluation in practice.Therefore,when using the real option method to evaluate the value of new energy automobile enterprises,there is a problem that the subjectivity is too strong and the accuracy of the evaluation results is insufficient.In this paper,the preliminary research and value composition of new energy automobile enterprises are analyzed at the initial stage,and it is found that the value of new energy automobile enterprises not only has the value of operating assets,but also has the value of real options,that is,the value of management’s right to choose investment decisions of enterprises.At this time,the traditional evaluation method can not accurately and comprehensively reflect the value of the option.Therefore,this paper introduces the real option model into the value evaluation of new energy automobile enterprises.It is found that the value of the model parameters with fixed values will lead to great differences between the evaluation results and the dynamic changes of the market.The author will learn from fuzzy mathematics theory,further revise the pricing model parameters of real options,and build a more comprehensive,accurate and scientific value evaluation model of new energy automobile enterprises based on fuzzy real options.To verify the feasibility of the improved evaluation model,this paper will take BYD Company,which is a representative company in new energy automobile enterprises,as a case for empirical analysis.The author applies the improved fuzzy real option model to evaluate the value of BYD’s automobile enterprises,and compares its evaluation results with those of traditional real option pricing model with BYD’s market value on the benchmark date.The results show that the intrinsic value of BYD enterprise calculated by the improved fuzzy real option model is closer to the market value of the benchmark date.In order to verify the feasibility of the improved evaluation model,this paper will take BYD Auto,which is a representative company in new energy automobile enterprises,as a case for empirical analysis.The author applies the improved fuzzy real option model to evaluate the value of BYD Auto,and compares its evaluation results with those of traditional real option pricing model with BYD Auto’s market value on the benchmark date.The results show that the intrinsic value of BYD Auto calculated by the improved fuzzy real option model is closer to the market value of the benchmark date.The research results of this paper show that,based on the integrity of valuation,the value of real option is an essential factor in the process of evaluating new energy automobile enterprises,which can be a good supplement for the introduction of real option pricing model.Moreover,based on the fuzzy mathematics theory,the modification of the parameters of the real option model can ensure that the model is more in line with the real situation of the market and improve the accuracy of the evaluation results.