Reseatch On The Change And Forecast Of The Urban Spatial Pattern In Longkou City

Land use/land cover change is the core of the global ecological environment change problem, and it’s also the hotspot and frontier of geography research. Land use doesn’t not only refer to the behavior of land use, but it’s also an organic system.The system includes the different ways of land use and the land use intensity under various use manners. Land use research on regional scale has a key in the study of global environmental change and also the hotspot and frontier in the study of globalization. Urban land is the most important land resources that directly related to human. In recent years, urbanization keeps going on. Under the action of human activity, the change of urban land is more and more intense and also it’s more and more important to do the research on urban land. It is useful to evaluating and analysing the changes of urban spatial pattern and simulating the development trend. The research on urban spatial pattern can help reasonable plan and take advantage of the urban land resources. The paper takes the main city of Longkou as the study area and selects three periods (2000,2005,2010) of TM remote sensing image. Thesis research process is as follows:firstly, supervised classification is carried out on the remote sensing images and with the reference to the data of land use change of department through visual interpretation for appropriate amendments and then we can get three periods maps of land ues of the study area; secondly, calculate both of the single land use dynamic index and the integrated land use dynamic index and get the transfer matrix of land use from Arcgis software,then according to the calculation results, we can analysze the land use changes;thirdly, calculate appropriate landscape indexes of Landscape level and plaque type level in Fragstats and ananlyse the distribution and the changesof different types of landscape pattern, then do the moving window operation on the study area and gradiently analyse the results and at last detailedly analyse the changes on the spatial pattern of land use of study area; fourthly, in preparation for the simulation of land use change, use the markov model to predict in various land use types of land demand and apply logistic regression model to calculate the correlation of each land use type and the driving factors of natural factors and social factors, then we can get the correlation equations and ROC curves of every land use type; fifthly, putting the above results and land use data of2005as a basic data, Use the CLUE-s model to simulate the land use of2010and refer to the map of present land use situation in2010to do accuracy test to the mimic diagram; at last, predict2020land use spatial pattern of distribution in the study area and according the result,analyse the spatial pattern change and the expansion of urban land use of the study area in2020.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) in the research period, the land use of the study area change quickly and the rate of change from2000to2005is much faster than the rate from2005-2010. Among all the land use types, the area of urban land use, road land, woolland, grass land is increased and the area of rural residential land is firstly decreased and then increased. The area of other construction land, garden land, water area is firstly increased and then decreased. The area of the cultivated land is decreased through the research period.(2) In the Iangscape lever, patch density, the number of patches and shannon diversity index of the study area is increased and largest patch index is decreased. The changes of largest patch index and shannon diversity index are inversely proportional in sometimes and somewhere. In the patch lever, the proportion of urban land in all the land use types is increased and the plaques are more and more fragile, the discrete degree is becoming more and more serious, patch shape becomes more and more complicated. The proportion of rural residential land in all the land use types is decreased and the plaques are more and more fragile.The discrete degree of the road land is becoming more and more serious and patch shape becomes much more complicated. The area of other construction land is increased and tends to be more concentrated distribution. Farmland and garden land becomes much more fragile and discreter. The patch numbers of woodland, grassland and water area are decreased and the patches are more concentrated distribution.(3) From the landscape shape index and shannon diversity index grid figure can be seen, the shape of urban land in study area is complicated.In the western and south-east of the study area, the land is most seriously affected by human activities. From the grid figure can be seen, residential land and farmland landscape index are inversely proportional. Residential land is mostly in the North-East. Agricultural land is moetly in the Midwest and the south area in the study area where lays little residential land. Sample points every100m from geometric center from eight directions to the city edge in the study area. The eight directions are east, west, south, north, northeast, southwest, southeast and northwest. According to the above dates, do the gradient analysis and get the conclusions as follows:the maximum value of landscape shape index appears in the south of the center of the city and it’s nearly4kilometers to the center; the maximum value of Shannon diversity index appears in the south of the center of the city and it’s nearly3kilometers to the center; the high values of landscape index values of residential land are mostly distributed in northeast area; the high values of landscape index values of agricultural land are mostly distributed in west, south and southwest area.(4) According to the demand of land use area, driving factors and logistic regression equation, Set the related parameters of CLUE-S model and get mimic diagram of land use in2010, then do the accuracy test to Tthe simulation results. The Kappa value is0.739and the precision is high. Then forecast the land use of study area in2020. From the diagram of land use in2020can be seen, the expansion trend of urban land use on the space is obvious, and the expansion direction is mainly to the west and south.