Research On Development Potentialand Promotion Strategy Of Electric Energy Substitution In Ningxia

Driven by a new round of energy revolution and the vision of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization",the electric energy substitution mode with "electricity instead of coal,electricity instead of oil,and clean electricity from afar " as the core has become a powerful measure for all regions to get the coordinated and high-quality development of energy,economy and environment.Due to the high energy consumption intensity and increasing pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in recent years,the frequent phenomenon of abandoning wind and solar power since 2016 has not only ushered in major development opportunities,but also faced severe tests.Therefore,electric energy substitution has become the inevitable choice for area to optimize the energy consumption structure,promote the healthy development of economic environment,solve the problem of clean energy consumption and successfully achieve the goal of "carbon peak".It is of great significance for the early achievement of the goal about carbon peak driven by electric energy substitution to discuss the potential of electric energy substitution and the trend of "carbon peak" driven by electric energy substitution policy,which helps deeply explore the development space of electric energy substitution,and put forward the corresponding promotion strategy of electric energy substitution.Taking Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the research objective,this paper studies the electric energy substitution potential,the trend of "carbon peak" driven by electric energy substitution and the promotion strategies of electric energy substitution.Firstly,analysis the influencial factors of electric energy substitution potential,and verifies the rationality of the selected indexs by using the grey correlation theory.Then these indexs are used as the initial input variables to predict the electric energy substitution potential during the 14 th Five Year Plan period based on the extreme learning machine model optimized by particle swarm optimization.And then,combined with the prediction results of electric energy substitution and the development trend of regional economy and energy structure,the "carbon peak" trend driven by electric energy substitution is predicted with the help of stirpat theory and ridge regression model,this paper predicts the effect of electric energy substitution,that is,the trend of "carbon peak" driven by substitution policy.The results show that during the "14th five year plan" period,the average annual electric energy substitution potential of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region under the conventional development scenario,policy strengthening scenario,technology and policy strengthening scenario is 3.225 billion kwh,3.601 billion k Wh and 4.153 billion kwh respectively.The substitution effect will make a certain contribution to the optimization of regional energy structure and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction tasks.Driven by the electric energy substitution project,it is predicted according to the above scenarios,The results show that under the three scenarios,the goal of "carbon peak" will be achieved in 2032,2031 and 2029 respectively.Finally,in order to promote the release of its electric energy substitution potential and the successful completion of the goal of "carbon peak",combined with the current situation of wind and solar power abandonment in area,the "8 + 7" double-layer power substitution promotion strategy is designed from the perspectives of supply side and demand side,and corresponding suggestions are put forward for the main promoters of the two major power substitution projects of the government and power grid company,in order to provide reference for the rapid development of electric energy substitution and the early implementation of the "carbon peak" plan in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.