Comprehensive Evaluation Of Dam-Break Consequences Based On Variable Weight Set Pair-Extenics Coupling Model

Comprehensive evaluation of dam failure is a very important part of dam risk management.In view of the fact that the existing research juxtaposes the social impact of dam failure with the loss of life,economic loss and environmental impact of dam failure,the weight of artificial subjective setting indicators is fixed and unchanged,and there is incompatibility between the evaluation index value and the evaluation level standard in the process of subordination,this study redefines the meaning of the social impact of dam failure after narrowing the treatment,and adopts the variable weight theory to determine the weight of each evaluation index;the advantages of using the advantages of extension to deal with the problem of incompatibility combined with the combination of set pair analysis can effectively deal with the characteristics of system uncertainty.A comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam failure based on the variable weight set pair-extenics coupling model is constructed,and the main research work and results are as follows:(1)Establish the comprehensive evaluation index system and grade standard of dam break consequences.Based on laws,regulations and industry norms,the paper redefines the social impact of dam break after narrowing the meaning of existing research,and then builds an evaluation index system which includes 4 first-level indicators and 22 second-level indicators by using hierarchical analysis structure model.At the same time,the standard method and reference method are used to establish the evaluation index grade standards.(2)Weight analysis of influence factors of dam break based on variable weight theory.In view of the shortcomings of the use of constant weights in the comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam failure in the traditional comprehensive evaluation of dam failure,according to the relative size of the normalization of the state values of each evaluation index in different actual projects,the variable weight of the evaluation indicators is modified by the variable weight of the evaluation indicators,and the variable weights of each evaluation indicator are determined to highlight the importance of the poor indicators in the comprehensive evaluation,so as to avoid their negative effects being covered up by better indicators.(3)Construct a comprehensive evaluation model of dam failure consequences based on variable weight set pair-extenics coupling.Aiming at the uncertainty and incompatibility problems existing in the comprehensive evaluation process of dam failure consequences,the incompatibility between various evaluation indicators is handled by using extension,and the quintumensional correlation degree of the improved set is used to represent the characteristic quantity of things in the topology to characterize the uncertainty factors in the comprehensive evaluation of dam failure consequences,and combined with the variable weight weight of the evaluation index,a variable weight set pair-expandable coupling evaluation model is constructed.(4)Example application.Applying the model to gongming reservoir,the comprehensive evaluation grade of dam-break consequences is "Grade ⅲ(medium)".Compared with the evaluation level results obtained by the cloud object element method,it shows that the comprehensive evaluation of dam failure consequences based on the variable weight set pair-expandable coupling evaluation model is more reasonable and reliable,and the model has stronger universality.