Flight Volume Prediction Of Multi-airport System Under Resource Competition

In recent years,with the rapid development of air transportation market and the emergence of a large number of new technologies and new ideas,the scarcity of resources and limitation of development have become the urgent problems to be solved in the air transportation industry.Scientific prediction the amount of flights is a key task to make civil aviation airport construction planning confirm to the demand of transportation market.However,the traditional time series and econometric prediction methods can not meet the rapid growth of transportation demand,which leads to the mismatch between the planed airport construction scale and the demand,and the increasingly fierce conflicts between airspace managers and users.Therefore,a scientific and reasonable prediction method is extremely important.Based on the research status at home and abroad,the flight flow prediction was divided into air passenger traffic prediction and freight volume prediction.Firstly,the basic concepts and characteristics of multi-airport system were introduced,and the resource competition performance of aviation development was analyzed qualitatively from social economy,passenger traffic competition,freight competition and airspace competition aspects.According to the development status of Beijing-Tianjin multi-airport system,the method of quantifying resource competition was proposed and the corresponding variable structure was obtained.Based on the above analysis,this paper constructed the system dynamics model of multi-airport system flight traffic prediction under resource competition,and verified the reliability of the model.According to the characteristics of examples,four scenarios,namely,the opening of Daxing airport,the competition of airspace resources,the operation characteristics of high speed rail and the influence of COVID-19,were set up to simulate the future trend of the multi-airport system.The results show that because the opening of Daxing airport is restricted by the trans-field policy,the flight traffic decreases slightly,but the attracting scope of each airport is more reasonable,so that the share of civil aviation in the passenger transport market has increased;due to the restriction of the external airspace of multi-airport system,the flight traffic will reach the upper limit of the operating capacity of the associated airspace in the terminal area in 2024;the speed increase of high-speed railway has a great impact on civil aviation,but the adjustment of high-speed railway ticket price has little impact on civil aviation.COVID-19 has greatly reduced its flight traffic due to its huge impact on the social economy,but through a certain incentive measures,the flight traffic can be restored to the pre epidemic level earlier.