Measurement And Analysis Of Global Natural Gas Supply Disruption Risk From Core Exporting Countries

As a clean energy source,natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in energy.However,due to the uneven regional distribution of natural gas production and consumption,most countries or regions rely heavily on imports for natural gas supplies.And a few important natural gas exporting countries in the natural gas supply network have a large number of supply channels,and when the core exporting countries interrupt natural gas supplies,it may lead to widespread natural gas supply interruption risks,affecting the energy support of natural gas importing countries.Therefore,it is of far-reaching practical significance to measure the risk of global gas supply disruption from core exporting countries and analyze the reasons and mechanisms behind it.This study focuses on the risk of global gas supply disruption and conducts research from the perspective of supply disruption in core exporting countries.Firstly,the natural gas supply network model is constructed based on the complex network theory,the supply network structure is preliminarily observed,and the improved Page Rank algorithm based on edge weights is used to calculate the status of all nodes in the network,and their distribution is analyzed,according to which it is concluded that the development of natural gas supply network is uneven,which is greatly affected by core exporting countries.The entropy method was applied again to construct an importance assessment system for exporting countries and identify core natural gas exporting countries.Considering the cascade fault model of natural gas production at each node again,the gas supply interruption model of core exporting countries is established.Thirdly,based on the operation results of the gas supply interruption model and considering a variety of natural gas reserves,a natural gas supply interruption risk measurement model is constructed,and the model is applied to empirical analysis according to the reality of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and the global natural gas supply interruption risk measurement results from Russia are obtained.Again,the gas supply interruption scenario of single-core exporting countries and the gas interruption scenario of multi-core exporting countries were analyzed separately,and the corresponding natural gas supply interruption risk measurement results were obtained by analyzing China.Finally,the results are discussed,the causes and mechanisms are analyzed,and relevant suggestions are made based on energy security theory.The results of the study show that:(1)The characteristics of core natural gas exporters are wide range of natural gas exports,large proportion of export volume,and high trade closeness,and the United States,Russia and Qatar are identified as the most important core exporters,of which the core exporter with the greatest impact on China is Russia.(2)The interruption of gas supply in core exporting countries has a greater impact on the risk of natural gas supply interruption in importing countries,and the risk of China is relatively low,but when the gas supply of multi-core exporting countries is interrupted,the risk of China’s natural gas supply interruption will be significantly increased.(3)The risk mechanism of supply disruption is that imports are dependent on a single core exporter.This study measures and analyzes the risk of global natural gas supply interruption from core exporting countries,which has certain theoretical significance for grasping the risk of global natural gas supply interruption and has certain practical significance for avoiding the adverse impact of natural gas supply crisis on energy security and economic stability.It will help countries make preliminary judgments on the potential risk of natural gas supply disruption,and provide scientific reference for China to formulate natural gas import strategies and prevent the risk of natural gas supply interruption.