Research On Decision Support Technology For Marine Oil Spill Emergency Monitoring

This paper mainly focuses on the task of formulating emergency monitoring scheme under the background of offshore oil spill.Starting from the real business of marine oil spill emergency monitoring,the related decision support technology based on quantitative modeling method to generate emergency monitoring plan is studied.Through the research of this paper,we can provide structured decision-making steps and methods for the commanders of emergency monitoring operations,and assist the commanders to formulate a scientific and reasonable emergency monitoring plan efficiently.The research contents and ideas of this paper are as follows:(1)The technical framework of decision support for marine oil spill emergency monitoring is constructed.In order to solve the problems such as the lack of scientific decision-making schemes related to marine oil spill emergency monitoring in China,a structured technical framework of decision support for marine oil spill emergency monitoring is constructed in this paper.Firstly,by combing the marine oil spill emergency monitoring process,the key decision-making issues that determine the effectiveness of marine oil spill emergency monitoring operations are identified: "where to monitor" and "which monitoring subject is sent to perform what monitoring tasks".It is abstracted into two research contents: "the location of marine oil spill emergency monitoring sites" and "the assignment of marine oil spill emergency monitoring tasks".Then,through the in-depth analysis of the research content,the important and difficult points in the research are clarified and the research ideas of this paper are combed out.Finally,the research framework of decision support technology for marine oil spill emergency monitoring is designed,which provides the overall process and feasible technical approach to assist decision-making for the comprehensive utilization of marine oil spill environmental data and on-site information.(2)The layout method of marine oil spill emergency monitoring sites based on multi-objective optimization is proposed.In order to assist decision makers to solve the problem of "where to monitor" in emergency monitoring operations,in this paper,the layout method of marine oil spill emergency monitoring sites is studied.Firstly,the concept of information entropy of monitoring sites is put forward to quantify the amount of information,such as pollutant concentration and regional sensitivity that can be brought by different monitoring sites.Secondly,based on the prediction data of oil spill drift at sea,the layout scheme of the initial monitoring station is determined by the grid layout method.Third,the realistic demand of "monitoring the maximum amount of information in the shortest time" is transformed into the research goal of "screening monitoring sites with large amount of information and reducing the number of monitoring sites".Then,considering the constraint conditions such as the concentration of oil spill that may cause harm to people or equipment,the monitoring intensity requirements of different sensitive areas,and taking the maximum information entropy of monitoring sites and minimizing the number of monitoring sites as the objective function,a multi-objective optimization model for the location of marine oil spill emergency monitoring sites is constructed.Finally,the model is solved based on NSGA-II algorithm and TOPSIS method,and the reference layout of marine oil spill emergency monitoring sites considering the preference of decision makers is output.(3)A task allocation method for marine oil spill emergency monitoring based on bilateral matching is proposed.In order to assist decision makers to solve the problem of "which monitoring subject is assigned to carry out what monitoring tasks" in emergency monitoring operations.In this paper,the task allocation technology of marine oil spill emergency monitoring is studied.Firstly,the task and the main subject of the emergency monitoring of oil spill at sea are identified,and based on the results of the layout of the emergency monitoring sites,the specific type,difficulty and risk of the task are defined.Secondly,according to the actual situation,emergency monitoring subjects are generally not allowed to select tasks,but they can give the characteristics of their proficiency(competency)in different types of tasks,task types are introduced to indirectly express the relationship between "monitoring subject---task".On this basis,two concepts,task demand satisfaction and emergency monitoring subject capability competency,are proposed to express the preference information of bilateral subjects,at the same time,the corresponding preference quantification model is constructed.Then,the specific connotation of the basic concept of bilateral matching theory under the background of marine oil spill emergency monitoring task allocation is redefined.Besides,considering that in reality,"even if the monitoring subject does not meet all the requirements of the task,but it is acceptable to meet the core needs of the task",a bilateral matching model for task allocation of marine oil spill emergency monitoring considering attribute priority is constructed.Finally,according to the specific characteristics of the model,a fast generation algorithm of feasible solution is designed to solve the problem.(4)The specific application of the model is designed.In order to evaluate the scientific nature and rationality of the model proposed in this paper,based on the xylene leakage accident of "Ziyunlun" and a simulation example,the two decision support models proposed in this paper are applied.Through the comparison and analysis of the solution results,the scientific nature,feasibility and effectiveness of the model and algorithm proposed in this paper have been verified.